KARACHI: The decision by the MQM to withdraw from the federal cabinet but to remain on the treasury benches has raised a central question: is it a mere tactic to extract more concessions from the PPP at the centre and in Sindh or is it a change in strategy, a signal that schemes are afoot to topple the PPP-led government in Islamabad?

The opinion among officials, analysts and senior journalists appears to be split. All requested anonymity to speak about the MQM’s possible motives and coalition politics.

“It’s a serious move, the game is on,” according to an expert on Karachi politics. “The MQM doesn’t do anything without approval. The instigation has come from the establishment.”

A seasoned MQM watcher had this to offer: “In the past, the MQM’s withdrawal marks the end game, the beginning of the end.” However, the analyst argued that is unlikely to be the case at present because “the alternative is not there”.Another veteran analyst appeared to agree: “Looking at it, at first glance it looks like a classic establishment move. See what’s happening elsewhere in the country and it’s the same cast of characters, the same guys who supported Musharraf who are in movement.”

But the analyst went on to say he was “confused” by the MQM’s move.

The problem with the theory of an establishment-sponsored move is that it founders on the Nawaz Sharif angle. According to a political observer, the “Nawaz option, the only genuine alternative to the present lot, is unacceptable to the army and the US. So bring down the government and then what? What’s the alternative?”

Inside parliament, without the PML-N’s support a no-confidence vote against the government cannot mathematically succeed, a TV-news-channel head noted: “126 (PPP MNAs) plus 90 (PML-N) is 216. That leaves everyone else combined a long way short of a majority.”

A political analyst observed: “See what Altaf Hussain said this morning (Tuesday) about Nawaz Sharif. He attacked him as ferociously as he did the government, so it’s clearly not about brining the government down.”

Haider Abbas Rizvi, deputy parliamentary leader of the MQM, was dismissive of the suggestions his party’s moves were establishment-sponsored: “No, we have done nothing to destabilise this government. We are very clear: we won’t be part of derailing the political system.”

According to Mr Rizvi, the main concern of his party is that it is not being consulted by the PPP before decisions are taken on “awami issues”: “They never take us into confidence, in the federal government or Sindh. We’ve gone begging from the prime minister downwards to be included in the decision-making process.”

But an official close to the Sindh government argued that the MQM move may be rooted in a struggle for control of Karachi.

“They (the MQM) want the city government to be brought back. Sixty per cent of Sindh’s revenues are generated in this city. Musharraf taught the MQM how to make money using the state levers, now they want it back,” the official claimed.

The official also argued that the MQM believes the rise of the ANP in Karachi is occurring with the support of the PPP and that has also become a major source of friction: “The ANP looks like what the MQM did in the early days: ruthless, no constraints and with great ambition. They (the MQM) want that threat neutralised.”

When asked about the status of negotiations between the MQM and the PPP on the local-government issue, Mr Rizvi said: “There are no negotiations happenings. Our bill is with them and their bill is with us, and that’s it.”

That, according to a senior newspaper editor, is where an opportunity lies for the PPP: “Maybe Asif Zardari needs to reactivate the local governments, so that the MQM can have control of a city or two. Regardless of the (MQM’s) motives, it’s hard to argue against the principle of local governance.”

Whatever lies at the root of the MQM’s decision to withdraw from the federal government, analysts appeared convinced the imminent collapse of the PPP-led government in Islamabad is unlikely.

“It seems the (MQM’s) decision is to not bring the government down, but not to let it function either,” according to an analyst — an assessment which reflected the views expressed by other political observers.

Another analyst ventured: “Despite being part of the government, it (the MQM) was feeling left out. It needs to have administrative control at least in Karachi, meaning LB (local body) polls. Or it could be one more push towards forging an alliance of MQM and a section of Sindhi nationalists to isolate ‘outsiders’, i.e. Pathans and Punjabis.”

This was much clear, however, according to the analyst: “The MQM has rolled the dice. It’s up to Asif Zardari to figure out how to recover his coalition now.”