THE federal decision to permit potato exports to Pakistan’s main markets — Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond — through Iran is unlikely to offer any tangible relief to growers and traders, given logistical bottlenecks and very high freight costs. The route’s viability is further undermined by the additional 25pc US tariffs imposed on countries trading with or via Tehran. The move follows demands from growers in Punjab that the government subsidise potato exports to stabilise the domestic market. The gravity of the matter can be gauged from reports of farmers ploughing standing crops back into the soil. This also reveals the absence of effective agricultural market stabilisation mechanisms.

The trigger of the crisis is unmistakable: a supply glut caused by surplus output coinciding with disruption in exports to and through Afghanistan due to cross-border trade closure, which has not only halted exports to Afghanistan — Pakistan’s largest potato market — for months now, but also stalled trade with Central Asia and beyond. The numbers illustrate the scale of the crisis. In 2023, Pakistan exported potatoes worth $140m, with Afghanistan absorbing 41pc of the volume. In 2024, the exports were valued at $138m, with 42pc again going to Afghanistan. Potato is our largest vegetable by area and production; the sudden loss of these markets has created an export vacuum that the domestic market cannot absorb. Besides, it exposes the fragility of our agricultural export model, one which is reactive rather than strategic. While the government’s position that security concerns had necessitated border closures is valid, the economic consequences of such decisions cannot be overlooked. The permission to use the Iranian route for potato exports shows that the authorities are aware of the costs of the Afghan border closure to the economy: tens of thousands of households depend on trade with Afghanistan but cannot find a solution. Unless Islamabad moves away from ad hoc crisis management to strategic trade reforms, policy responses will remain ineffective.

Published in Dawn, January 15th, 2026