The state-run Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) is planning a major expansion of unconventional gas developments from early next year, aiming to boost production and reduce reliance on imported liquefied natural gas.

Pakistan has long been viewed as having potential in both tight and shale gas, which are trapped in rock and can only be released with specialised drilling, but commercial output has yet to be proved.

Managing Director Ahmed Lak told Reuters that OGDCL had tripled its tight-gas study area to 4,500 square kilometres after new seismic and reservoir analysis indicated larger potential. Phase two of a technical evaluation will finish by the end of January, followed by full development plans.

The renewed push comes after US President Donald Trump said Pakistan held “massive” oil reserves in July, a statement analysts said lacked credible geological evidence, but which prompted Islamabad to underscore that it is pursuing its own efforts to unlock unconventional resources.

“We started with 85 wells, but the footprint has expanded massively,” Lak said, adding that OGDCL’s next five-year plan would look “drastically different”.

Early results point to a “significant” resource across parts of Sindh and Balochistan, where multiple reservoirs show tight-gas characteristics, he said.

Shale pilot ramps up

OGDCL is also fast-tracking its shale programme, shifting from a single test well to a five-to-six-well plan in 2026-27, with expected flows of 34 million standard cubic feet per day (mmcfd) per well. If successful, the development could scale to hundreds or even more than 1,000 wells, Lak said.

He said shale alone could eventually add 600 mmcfd to 1 billion standard cubic feet per day of incremental supply, though partners would be needed if the pilot proves viable.

The company is open to partners “on a reciprocal basis”, potentially exchanging acreage abroad for participation in Pakistan, he said.

A 2015 US Energy Information Administration study estimated Pakistan had 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil, the largest such resource outside China and the United States.

A 2022 assessment found parts of the Indus Basin geologically comparable to North American shale plays, though analysts say commercial viability still hinges on better geomechanical data, expanded fracking capacity and water availability.

OGDCL plans to begin drilling a deep-water offshore well in the Indus Basin in the fourth quarter of 2026, Lak said. In October, Turkey’s TPAO, with PPL and its consortium partners, including OGDCL, were awarded a block for offshore exploration.

A combination of weak gas demand, rising solar uptake and a rigid LNG import schedule has created a surplus of gas that forced OGDCL to curb output and pushed Pakistan to divert cargoes from Italy’s ENI and seek revised terms with Qatar.