IT’S been a year since the May that Pakistan will celebrate. A few cycles ago, we had the unfortunate May 9, which too cannot be forgotten but for reasons best not to get into. But last year brought us a May as bright and celebratory as the May of English poetry. The month didn’t necessarily begin this way — for the clouds of war darkened the horizon after the Pahalgam event, fighting was predicted and correctly so. The end, thankfully, came quickly as did the victory Pakistan could call its own thanks to the downing of multiple Indian aircraft. This is not to say Pakistan did not face an Indian assault or des­truction but the downing of aircraft in the plural does get more attention than other damage.

Overnight, the conversation about the mess in the country — from elections to economic fragility to the quality of democracy — gave way to debate about Pakistan’s air force, its skilled pilots and the capacity of Chinese hardware to down the French Rafale. There was also some talk of Indian adventurism which also received its share of the limelight with the events in Canada. Then came the bromance with the latest inhabitant of the White House and the rest as they say is history.

The Iran war has simply added more feathers to Pakistan’s cap, of being a peacemaker and mediator and a trusted ally of sworn enemies that collects accolades from around the world. As Pakistan basks in this international glory, it seems that New Delhi cannot understand the rapidly changing world around it. flummoxed by the noise and attention around Pakistan, it has reacted by passing petty comments at worst.

This has simply added to the celebrations at home — from the critical remarks to the debates about how this change of fortunes happened in India. But at the same time, despite the self-congratulations and praise for individuals who have been given all credit, Pakistan, too, has misread the situation at times. In other words, it may be missing the woods for the trees.

Islamabad needs to also be aware that the celebrations and accolades will not last forever.

To understand what is happening vis-à-vis Pakistan and the world, it is important to take a view longer than the May conflict or change in the White House. Indeed, some of these events are taking place in a world that has moved on from 9/11; where terrorism is no longer the foremost priority in global politics.

After 9/11 and other high-profile attacks in Western cities such as London, and the spectre of terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda and IS, Pakistan was viewed through the lens of militancy. Despite being a close ally of Washington, doubts remained. In fact, once George Bush, who shared a close relationship with Pervez Musharraf, left the White House, the Pakistan-US relationship became thornier and stormier, reflecting the questions that were being raised about Islamabad’s intentions.

Over time, with incidents such as Mumbai, New Delhi learnt to take advantage of this world — internationally and domestically. From pushing for Islamabad to be placed on the FATF list to having Pakistan-based groups condemned internationally, New Delhi grew more assertive as its economic heft increased as did its relevance to the West. Domestically, the BJP painted Congress as a weak player, which was unable to punish Pakistan for ‘attacks’ such as Mumbai and promised to avenge each transgression. On both planks it succeeded.

But then, the world began to change. The US withdrew from Afghanistan and terrorism seemed less relevant in the face of economic stagnation; populist politics; and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Terrorism slid down the priority list for the world. Nothing made this more evident than recognition of the new government in Syria. This is also evident in the change of attitudes from Balakot in 2019 to Pahalgam. If Indian accusations were believed in the first incident, in the second they were met mostly with silence. Not just because of the lack of evidence but also the environment.

Oct 7 and the Israeli rampage since has added a second dimension to this world. Islamabad is now being seen and hailed as a peacemaker as well as a security provider in the Middle Eastern region. American President Donald Trump, can’t stop praising Islamabad and if the State Department has a view closer to India’s, at the moment it is too irrelevant and gutted to make a difference.

Finally, it seems New Delhi is also learning to recognise this new world. There is anecdotal evidence the country is considering showing some flexibility in its approach to Pakistan and the idea of engagement. However, whether or not this leads to some qualitative change and talks is not clear. At the same time, it is worth remembering that this may not stop New Delhi from fomenting clandestine trouble within Pakistan’s conflict zones.

Islamabad remains ready to engage. But it needs to also be aware that the celebrations and the accolades will not last forever. The instability in the Gulf can and will lead to pressures for Pakistan, economically and otherwise. The phrase ‘security provider’ sounds impressive but there is little clarity on what it means for the country; and there is an aversion at home to discussing it in detail and what its ramifications — good or bad — might be. This is not good; for only a transparent debate can throw light on unexpected and unwelcome outcomes.

There might be renewed pressure from the West (read: the US) with regard to the Pakistan-China relationship as time goes on; it is worth remembering that it was the first Trump administration which began raising questions about Chinese loans to Pakistan. Indeed, this is reminder enough that Islamabad should use this space it has internationally to focus on the multiple domestic challenges, especially the economy. The good times will not last forever.

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, May 12th, 2026