PAKISTAN’S cotton economy is once again facing a crisis that exposes the country’s flawed agricultural and industrial policies. The reported fall in cotton stocks to below 10,000 bales before the start of the new ginning season is unprecedented and alarming for an economy whose largest export industry depends heavily on the availability of cotton. With some textile mills already fearing production cuts in the coming weeks, the crisis could not have come at a more precarious time for a country struggling to protect its balance-of-payments position amid a global energy price spike. The immediate reasons behind the sharp depletion in stocks — the closure of the border with Afghanistan and supply disruptions caused by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East — are now taking a toll on the textile industry at a time when the country desperately needs every export dollar to stabilise its fragile external account.

That said, the current situation is only a symptom of a much older problem. Pakistan has been facing recurring cotton shortages for several years now, because of the persistent decline in domestic production. Farmers have steadily shifted away from cotton towards more lucrative crops such as sugarcane in the traditional cotton-growing areas, severely undermining the cotton economy. The consequences of this shift have been significant for the textile industry that contributes roughly 55pc of Pakistan’s total export revenues. The country now spends millions of dollars every year on cotton imports merely to keep its textile factories operational. Successive governments have done little to reverse the collapse in cotton output. Research institutions have consumed billions of rupees over the decades without producing any breakthrough in climate-resilient, pest-resistant or high-yield long-staple cotton varieties. Rising input costs are now worsening matters even more. On the other hand, India, once producing cotton at levels comparable to Pakistan, has transformed its own sector through high-yield varieties and modernised processing. It now plans to raise annual production to 50m bales by 2031 while offering farmers billions in price support. Pakistan, meanwhile, has moved in the opposite direction. National cotton production has fallen to less than half of its historical peak and we still lack a cotton strategy, effective seed technology and policies for cotton output. The present shortage should therefore serve as a wake-up call.

Published in Dawn, May 12th, 2026