KARACHI: The KSE-100 Index closed Monday’s trading session slightly lower, shedding 42.35 points, or 0.04 per cent, as investors remained cautious amid a lack of clear market triggers.

The stock market remained range-bound, with sentiment largely dictated by stock-specific activity.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange continued its consolidation phase as concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over the circular debt issue triggered a correction in exploration and production (E&P) stocks, explained Chase Securities CEO Ali Nawaz.

Last week, the government announced that it is negotiating a Rs1.25 trillion loan with commercial banks to address its energy sector debt. However, the IMF has not granted its approval for this plan, adding to investor uncertainty. The lack of a green signal from the IMF has kept market participants cautious, particularly in sectors sensitive to policy shifts.

Meanwhile, there were varying expectations reg­ar­­­di­ng a potential rate cut, ranging from 50 basis points to 100bps, down to the possibility of no rate cut. With the SBP ultimately deciding against a cut, the market will likely react with mild negativity, said Topline Securities CEO Muhammad Sohail.

However, he added that ongoing negotiations with the IMF and the status of the long-standing circular debt resolution remain critical market triggers that could drive sentiment in the coming sessions.

Conversely, in a note before the monetary policy announcement, Arif Habib Ltd said that if the stock market index moves above 115,000 points, it’s a positive sign for the rest of the week. This suggests that the market has strength and could continue rising, possibly reaching 116,000 points in the coming days.

Published in Dawn, March 11th, 2025