KARACHI: State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmed has sounded confident that the $12.3 billion debt will be rolled over, while all necessary financial assurances are secured for the new IMF loan.

While briefing analysts and researchers after the monetary policy announcement on Thursday, the governor said Pakistan’s external debt obligations amount to $26.2bn for FY25, of which $12.3bn will be rolled over.

Around $4bn in bilateral commercial loans will be repaid and refinanced, bringing the total rollover or refinanced amount to $16.3bn.

“The remaining $10bn consists of $1.7bn that has already been repaid, leaving $8.3bn still payable for the rest of FY25,” reported Arif Habib Ltd.

All necessary commitments secured for IMF loan

By March next, $14.1bn in repayments are due, with $8.3bn being rolled over, resulting in a net repayable amount of $5.8bn.

“This $5.8bn due by March 2025 will be evenly distributed, with monthly payments averaging between $800 million to $1bn,” said the report.

Moreover, between July 1 and Sept 12, a total of $4bn has been settled, including $1.7bn in repay­ments and $2.3bn in rollovers.

For June, total interventions amounted to $573m (net buying from the market), according to the report. The SBP governor said the reserves are projected to reach $12bn by March and $13bn by June next year. The AHL report said the State Bank’s profit for FY24 exceeded Rs2.5 trillion and will soon be transferred to the government. Commenting on the real interest rate, the SBP chief stated they target no specific level.

“Regarding the IMF programme, the SBP governor stated that the government has secured all necessary financial assurances,” the AHL report said.

The governor expressed confidence that there are no further obstacles and is hopeful that Pakistan’s case will be presented to the IMF board in the Sept 25 meeting.

Moreover, the State Bank will begin disseminating three additional data sets: SBP market interventions (every month), though with a three-month time lag. SBP foreign exchange reserves projections will be released biannually in December and June; external debt repayments will be provided semi-annually.

Published in Dawn, September 13th, 2024