The World Bank predicts that the subcontinent will have 400m more people living in it by 2050 — roughly seven times the current population of Italy. It is a scary thought.
No nation can prosper without keeping its population in check — there are simply not enough resources to feed and clothe those born every year. Despite this common sense knowledge, Pakistan’s population growth rate indicates that by 2050, its population will be 1.5x what it is currently. Bangladesh and India, both better at curtailing their growth rates, will have populations roughly 1.2x their current size.
As it is, Pakistan’s GDP per capita is about $1,500 compared to Bangladesh’s $2,500 and India’s $2,200. How much further will the country lag as the population explosion continues?
Pakistan’s population is expected to cross 120m in the next three decades — over six times the population the size of Karachi. The country that the future generations will grow up in will be very different, hotter, with a dense urban crawl and a perpetual struggle for resources.
Children line the street begging for alms while men can be seen sleeping on footpaths every night — would their future generations have a better economic future where they have food in their bellies without depending on NGOs?
The roads are overcrowded with cars; would the advent of electric vehicles and self-driving technology make it any better? The tanker mafia in Karachi prevents it from consuming the water it has the right to access. Would a bigger population increase corruption, or would new technologies allow for more water availability?
As the world’s population grows, but the working population falls in developed countries, more labour will be exported from the subcontinent, especially since the current economic arc indicates fewer job opportunities. But will the remittances sent home be enough to keep the economy afloat, or will the exports increase in leaps and bounds to balance the twin deficits?
There are no positive answers on the road Pakistan is travelling on today. And yet, the layperson on the road will continue to birth more children, confident that some miracle will feed his offspring, regardless of the fact that his current brood spends the day without slippers.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, July 31st, 2023
