A person in a catch-22 situation faces two bad options and is paralysed about what to do. This is happening with the government: (1) early elections — and the induction of a caretaker setup; or (2) staying till the very end by owning the economic crisis, getting the EFF restarted, and dealing with the political fallout from the economic pain. From the government’s perspective, both options are bad.

The government has repeatedly said it has lost political capital, and calling snap elections will hurt its political future. But recently, the narrative of the second option has changed to: let’s fix the economy first (revive confidence), then restart the EFF (to avoid default), and in the process, regain political capital (from a grateful country). It doesn’t matter that this is an impossible trinity.

Reviving the economy will increase imbalances and move Pakistan away from the EFF while restarting the EFF will not increase PML-N’s political capital. But this spin does make it easier to opt for the second option, even though the country is likely to face a more spectacular implosion than the first option. When will this political charade end, and a caretaker setup take charge?

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 2nd, 2023