IT could turn ugly tonight. With Mr Imran Khan all set to address the public at Karachi’s Bagh-i-Jinnah later this evening, many will be watching to see how he reacts to the military’s distancing of itself from him. The ousted prime minister is firmly in ‘container mode’. The Wednesday jalsa in Peshawar will have given further validation to his plans to mobilise the electorate to push for early elections. Greeted there by a large, enthusiastic crowd, he delivered an aggressive speech targeting the new government and confronting the state, which has set the tone for how his campaign will proceed.

It has been commented earlier that Mr Khan has deployed a highly potent — and dangerous — narrative to carve a path for his return to power. This narrative has painted every individual, party or institution that goes against Mr Khan as unknowingly complicit in an international conspiracy at best, or an outright traitor at worst. It has sparked strong criticism of the military and judiciary — both of which featured prominently in the events leading to his ouster — not to mention an outpouring of vitriol and contempt for the new government. It is in this context that Mr Khan’s reaction to the DG ISPR’s statement will be closely watched. Though the military spokesman did say there were “no problems” with the PTI as such, he also publicly debunked many important talking points from the former prime minister’s narrative. Mr Khan’s more ardent supporters, many of whom seem to be quite averse to the military’s position in the vote of no-confidence episode, are not likely to take kindly to the DG ISPR’s public rebuke. The mix of emotions and nationalist righteousness has led to a combustible situation.

With 123 PTI MNAs having hastily resigned from the Assembly, and the early approval of their resignations secured, thanks to the political sympathies of the acting NA speaker, Mr Khan has painted himself into a corner. He could have sat in the Assembly while agitating on the streets, but he has willingly sacrificed that option to build pressure for an early election — the only option he wants open for himself at the moment. To force that outcome, he will need to build enough pressure on the state that it capitulates to his demands. This pressure can either be built over time, or by intensifying his rhetoric. Option A will not be easy: emotions may be running high right now, but will Mr Khan be able to keep his supporters engaged for months if needed? Or will he go for Option B and push the public and the state towards confrontation, the opportunity for which has been presented to him on a silver platter? Given the worrisome lengths Mr Khan has displayed himself capable of going to, in order to hold on to power, the prospects are disquieting.

Published in Dawn, April 16th, 2022