THE cotton production target has been missed yet again this year by around 25pc. The actual production so far stands at 10.5m bales against the original estimate of 14.1m bales.

Cotton watchers think that the final figure may reach 10.6m bales by the end of this month as some farmers are still persisting with the crop.

The current output, however, has improved by 800,000 bales when compared with the last year’s arrival figure of early March at 9.7m bales. The season ended with 10m bales and the gap between target and production was then 30pc.

Last year, total production target was 15.49m bales from an area of 7.7m acres. This year, these targets were revised downwards to 14.1m bales from 7.4m acres. But the actual sowing went down steeply, especially in Punjab, and it lost 21pc area. Sindh’s acreage, however, improved by 2pc.

The Cotton Crop Assessment Committee (CCAC) revised downward production estimates thrice during the season, and ultimately, Punjab was told to produce 6.903m bales (against original 9.5m bales), Sindh, 3.6m instead of 4.5m bales, Baluchistan, 0.038m bales against initial estimate of 0.098m bales, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 10,000 bales against 15,000 bales.

According to the official estimates, the total loss of area in Punjab was 20.82pc — 4.388m acres against a target of 5.7m acres. The core cotton areas lost 18pc area to competitive crops, while the non-core belt lost over 38pc area and sub-marginal areas suffered a loss of over 26pc. And the last year’s 30pc crop loss, according to the federal finance minister, had reduced GDP growth by 0.5pc.

Revival of cotton crop needs a concerted strategy and effort by the federal and provincial governments, industry and market managers

Almost all variables remained relatively positive for the crop but final figures still showed that massive loss. Last year, three adverse factors — erratic weather, strong pest attack and lower prices — had resulted in the 30pc less production.

This year, all three factors were relatively contained. The weather remained comparatively favourable overall, barring some occasional heat shocks. Similarly, pink bollworm and white fly did hit the crop, but were, by and large, managed well. The price also hovered around Rs3,000 per maund, against Rs2,200 to Rs2,400 a year earlier.

The input prices also helped the crop and increased per acre average yield by almost 34pc. Fertiliser prices were substantially subsidised and their off-take was roughly 30pc more than last year.

The pesticide prices came down because of withdrawal of GST and their application, which according to the manufacturers, went up by almost 25pc. All these factors put together took per acre average yield from 14.72 maunds last year to 20.23 maunds this year. However, despite all these positive factors, the overall cotton output was lower than the target.

Some of the missing links this time were the non-availability of performing seed, marketing issues, official neglect and loss of area. Revival of cotton crop needs a concerted strategy and effort by the federal and provincial governments, and industry and market managers, as the crop contributes over 70pc to the country’s exports.

Some other crops (corn, cane and rice) have emerged as powerful alternatives to the cotton crop. This is evident by the loss of over 18pc area in the core cotton areas.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, March 13th, 2017