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CPEC cost build-up

Updated Dec 15, 2016 12:06pm


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IN remarks given at a conference in Islamabad, Sartaj Aziz is reported to have said that loans being taken under CPEC projects will be repaid at two per cent interest spread over 20 to 25 years. He is about one-quarter right.

What Aziz is not telling us, unless his comments were not reported in full, is that more than two-thirds of the money committed for the ‘early harvest’ projects is actually on commercial terms. Of the total $28 billion that come under the ‘early harvest’ projects, a full $19bn are in the form of foreign direct investment on commercial terms and even the agreement signed in November 2013 between the governments of China and Pakistan that created this raft of investments mentions that these will follow “market principles”.

In those project documents that are publicly available, the debt service terms are 7pc to 8pc with many of them pegged to six-month Libor and include Sinosure, which is the fee for reinsurance of all loans that Chinese banks require all foreign borrowers to have.

Then there is the equity portion. Most of the projects coming in as direct investment have a debt-to-equity ratio of around 80:20, or in some cases 75:25. And in most cases, return on equity (ROE) is guaranteed at either 17pc or 20pc.

So let’s do a little math here. If $19bn are coming in as investment on commercial terms, and 80pc of that is debt with the remaining as equity, what is the size of the outflow as debt service and return on equity that we can discern?

My math tells me that the debt service outflows will be about $1bn and the return on equity will be $646 million if it is kept at 17pc. Add to that $1.9bn as repayment of principal. That means an annual net outflow of $3.546bn per year once commercial operations begin.

To properly afford the CPEC projects, the country will need to lift its exports, boost its productivity, and give a large spur to private enterprise.

Somebody please tell me what I’m doing wrong here. You can tweak the numbers a bit, say debt service will be 6pc and not 7pc as I’ve assumed. ROEs are unlikely to be lower than 17pc. In one case at least, that of Karot Hydropower, Nepra had granted 17pc ROE to the sponsors but they have submitted a review petition asking for this to be raised to 20pc “so as to encourage the investor to invest in the hydropower sector”.

So how much is $3.546bn? Compare it with last fiscal year’s figures, when interest payments on external debt were $2.1bn, and income (for foreigners) from investments in Pakistan was $3.2bn. Pakistan’s total interest outflows (on government borrowing alone) were $1.1bn in fiscal year 2016.

In the case of CPEC investments, it is difficult to see how these will be booked, since technically they will not be on government account: each project will earn its own money and service its own obligations, whether to its creditors or its sponsors, from its own cash flow. Therefore these outflows (and I’ve only calculated the interest on them, the repayment of principal is on top) will not be booked as external debt service obligations of the state since they are not public debt (even though they are publicly guaranteed), and only the repatriated profits will be booked as income from investments.

It is difficult to compare government debt figures with CPEC-related investment though, because they are both booked differently since the former is a direct loan whereas the latter is an investment against a loan. But they both place a burden on foreign exchange reserves, which will need to increase correspondingly if we are to extract the proper benefit from CPEC projects and not be left with a herd of white elephants whose costs weigh the macro economy down more than their output lifts it up.

How many of us are reassured that the government has done its homework properly to ensure that this does not happen? The more I hear government leaders telling the people that these are all concessional loans that carry an interest charge of 2pc payable in 25 years, the less reassured I feel because they are telling us less than a quarter of the full story and stopping there, to leave us with the impression that there are no further costs beyond this.

In reality, to properly afford the CPEC projects that are being undertaken, the country will need to lift its exports, boost its productivity, and give a large spur to private enterprise to get the wheels of domestic investment moving again. To some extent, this is happening. Cement, for instance, is doing quite well. Cement, incidentally, is probably the only product the Chinese projects are sourcing locally, with everything else imported from Chinese firms, with loans taken from Chinese banks.

On the surface, these figures are not alarming. Pakistan’s economy can indeed absorb them, and still profitably benefit. But so far, the IMF and the State Bank are both warning that for the country to carry its external debt burden, exports need to increase rapidly. The State Bank has also been warning about the increasingly short-term nature of external debt, pointing that “domestic commercial banks have also been taking short-term loans from foreign banks to bridge the payment gaps”.

I’m no expert in this field. But just looking at what is happening on the external front of our economy makes me a little nervous and I need some reassurance. We’ve heard about “record-high reserves” before too, only to find ourselves knocking on the IMF’s door within a year.

And I’m even less reassured when I read what the government told the IMF in the last review when the Fund raised the issue of a growing Chinese debt burden being taken on. They were told that “additional Chinese investment over the longer term, building on CPEC as a platform, could also help cover the projected CPEC-related outflows”.


The writer is a member of staff.

Twitter: @khurramhusain

Published in Dawn December 15th, 2016


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The views expressed by this writer and commenters below do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.

Comments (75) Closed

Feroz Dec 15, 2016 05:55am

Look at Chinese investments and loans to Sri Lanka for a better picture on what is coming. All the best !

salman ali Dec 15, 2016 06:27am

Thank you for flagging these valid issues. As always, your article is more objective than mere biased opinion. My request to you is to dig this issue deeper. 1) Does Pakistan have any alternatives to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks? 2) Can CPEC and hostilities with India/Afghanistan exist side by side? 3) How likely is the rescheduling of debt to reduce debt servicing burden and 4) Are guaranteed returns in USD or local currency? Thank you

Solve the Problem Dec 15, 2016 06:44am

Please add 5% per annum to above calculations for Currency Depreciation ... as loan is in dollars or other foreign currency...

Voice of Reason Dec 15, 2016 06:57am

A lot of comments about CPEC seem to believe that it is a solution to all ills and the relationship with China couched in emotional terms.

One thing is sure, the Chinese never do any business based on emotion - only cold hard profit. They will negotiate on what is best for them and for maximum profit. This is fine but Pakistan also needs to approach dealings in the same way. Could you imagine any business done in China where all the manpower and supplies came from outside the country? They insist on Joint Ventures, use of local labour and local supplies. Pakistan should insist on this. What is more the balance of trade needs to be more equal - Pakistan should have more favoured access to Chinese markets in lieu of the great advantage CPEC provides Chinese businesses. If both sides approach this in the same way - then it will be a win-win for both. A weakness on one side will just push for an unbalanced deal with winner take all.

Abdullah Dec 15, 2016 07:46am

Nothing against CPEC should be published.China is Pakistan's friend and to show its only super power friend in wrong light is unacceptable.

rajdeep Dec 15, 2016 08:40am

Excellent article

SB Dec 15, 2016 09:17am

Very impressive analysis...CPEC appeare to be a risky game changer... a classical googly and one need to wait to see which way it turns after bouncing ( on completion)

Alba Dec 15, 2016 09:16am

There is always that additional cost of politicians and bureaucrats passing out the contracts to companies willing to pay.

wellwisher Dec 15, 2016 09:56am

Chinese investment is shunned by all developing countries.Last country to suffer was Sri Lanka,Hope Pakistan does not suffers

roy Dec 15, 2016 09:55am

What happens if this falls back? Pakistan could not improve after getting $40bn aid from US, how Chinese loans will make difference? ?

saif Dec 15, 2016 10:03am

Another white elephant in making. A show peice of China failure.

lootra Dec 15, 2016 10:05am

Good analysis although I am not sure if all the facts are on the table. If indeed the statements in the article are true then all I can say is that it reflect the dire straits of Pakistan's economy and it's government's desperation to cling to CPEC in the hope of turning the economy around before a looming balance of payments crisis. On a separate note, full marks to the Chinese if they managed to pull of such a deal.

lootra Dec 15, 2016 10:41am

It will simply increase Pakistan's dependence on China. Well played!

alla bux Dec 15, 2016 11:09am

Why does not our government come clean about what the agreement (and there are multitudes of them) with China really is. We are only shown the tip of the ice berg, if that. Who know what is in the fine print. Time we got an independent appraisal of the whole deal and definitely not by the Chinese.

Kris Dec 15, 2016 11:25am

Iron brother is a good businessman.

bharat Dec 15, 2016 11:28am

Its a win win for both countries. I see Pakistan benefitting immensely in the long term. The results will take time but not that much.

Aaisha Dec 15, 2016 11:30am

Very well researched article. One must admit that China has played it's card very skillfully. China never plans for short term. They plan for very long term period. T hey want Pakistan neck deep in their debt. Within decade or two they will realize their goal and after that happens they will dictate their terms. Unfortunately in Pakistan leaders only think about very short term. They tend to think that whatever happens in long term will be headache of future governments, they want to reap short term political benefits right here right now. Kal kisne dekha hai.

South asia Dec 15, 2016 12:13pm

Pakistan should have built all this with its own money. CPEC is nothing but a road and rail line and some power and metro project. Sadly, like India, money is taken away by the politicians and their relatives and common man is left to pay the tax. CPEC loans will also be paid by Pakistan's common people, not by Nawaz or Imran. What has been done is done, now get ready to face price rise. Pakistan must trade with and allow investments from India and also invest here in India, that is the way out for both of us.

Or we can fight for 4 more generations.

A.Jabbar doha Dec 15, 2016 12:25pm

CPEC is a trade route. If trade routes can turn the tables for nations, Egypt would have been the world’s biggest power as it controls the Suez Canal which alone generates billions of dollars in revenue. The world is run by those who use that route – not by those who collect the toll tax.

cyber Bhai Dec 15, 2016 12:34pm

Emotional public, Corrupt Politician and Businessman friend. It is a deadly combination.

Manu Dec 15, 2016 12:49pm

The biggest spinoff of CPEC is the psychological delusion of the people of Pakistan. China also in Chahbahar and also talking to India for route through Nepal to Bay of Bengal. Let us not overestimate CPEC.

hakim Dec 15, 2016 01:47pm

Worry not Khurram. 25 years are not a big time. Most of the present rulers will die by then. May be the looted money which is in billions and billions of Dollars could be brought back ( may be not if Zardari clan rules the country). It was publicly admitted by the Finance Minister that 200bn Dollars of Pakistanis ( all black money) is lying in Swiss Banks and he also promised to bring it back. Let us not loose hope.

Ashraf Dec 15, 2016 01:53pm

@salman ali No, Yes and No

Really Shy Dec 15, 2016 01:53pm

Why this negativity? Pakistan's per capita income is expected to grow from $1,300 to $130,000 in the next 2-3 years (100 times increase) even if Pakistanis sit with crossed arms which is a premium for Pakistan's strategic location. Countries are begging to be Pakistan's friends and going all out to get a share in CPEC - highly confidential news is that Bangladesh is trying to merge back with Pakistan. CPEC is a golden goose for Pakistan and it has already started spitting out gold for common Pakistanis. Just need to be careful and get use to living with the new wealth.

DasG Dec 15, 2016 01:52pm

White elephant in making will burden the poorest just to appease China in antiIndia stand!

viv Dec 15, 2016 02:14pm

Other than rupee depreciation against dollar over the years, one has to also account hidden costs like security, acute water shortage in Gwadar ,environmental damage etc which are also in billions! I have another concern about power generated through these projects which will be expensive compared to other countries and common man would bear the burnt. Also exports and manufacturing will lose competitiveness by using this high cost electricity.

M Hussain Dec 15, 2016 02:35pm

CPEC debt ballooned by inept PM Sharif , to derail attention away from his Panama crises, will leave Pakistan indebted forever !

If this is true, future Pakistan Government should seize Sharif's family' s assets to pay for it

sasindran ayadakandiyil Dec 15, 2016 03:04pm

@Really Shy

I don't know whether u r an Indian or Pakistani !.............. But don't be so sarcastic! Pakistan has to move forward just like India and Bangladesh !

CPEC will definitely help Pak economically ........provided there is UTILISATION OF THE INFRA being built by Chinese. All other numbers given are correct,as per my own calculation.

Transit Dec 15, 2016 03:04pm

There are three major transit hubs. Afghanistan controlled silk route but while Chinese and Turks gained, Afghan was ruined. Panama controlled Panama Canal but only US gained. Egypt controlled Suez but it is ruined.

Pak does not even have major strategic location for anyone, except some dirtpoor C Asian countries and Afghanistan. Even they can trade through Iran and Russia. Please take a look at the world map.

China, if it wants, can just transit trade through India (UP-Rajasthan-Gujarat or Assam-Kolkata) today. These Indian routes are shorter, cheaper and safer than for China than Gwadar route.

China is investing in CPEC for strategic reasons, as trade does not make economic sense. Which is why no one in Pakistan or China will ever give clear picture on CPEC.

If Pakistan has to grow, it will need lot more own effort and focus. If it thinks that China will make it prosperous, my best wishes to Pakistani friends.

shahid Dec 15, 2016 03:07pm

Let's hope we don't suffer the same predicament as Sri Lanka

AHad Dec 15, 2016 03:10pm

Nice analysis, but in the end it depends on how well the money multiplies; be ROE 20%. It would have been better if you could prognosticate more on how sector wise growth would distribute and how far would the money stretch; since there is no turning back now. I liked how you raised the point on lack of local produce for manufacturing purposes.
I have the question, has the government signed a no entry agreement for Chinese firms in sectors like auto and Pharmaceuticals?

Lalit Dec 15, 2016 03:39pm

Game changer....what for good or worse ?

Shahid Dec 15, 2016 03:52pm

@AHad Only government can sincerely answer your question when they are apolitical at least on this important issue. It is dangerous when people outside the government start calculations based only on figures made public. How accurate is that information?

A Dec 15, 2016 03:55pm

@Lalit " CPEC is good or bad game changer"

CPEC is a game changer for good ..Chinese are not fools to put so much investment at stake ! It will contribute to overall growth of the industries by opening new export markets.

Mahmood Dec 15, 2016 04:00pm

"To properly afford the CPEC projects, the country will need to lift its exports, boost its productivity, and give a large spur to private enterprise."

Now you are asking too much from PML-N government! It is next to impossible for anyone in this government to think along these lines - unless there is some benefit for them personally.

That is a Mission Impossible. Unless a new honest government comes into power. But that would be a Miracle by itself.

VenkI Dec 15, 2016 04:08pm

Never ever underestimate China. See Srilanka, how its struggling to repay the loan.

Basit Ali Dec 15, 2016 04:23pm

@A Brother China is using the route to export IT's manufactured products, do you think it would encourage competition to that. I only have a simple question: Can some one compare how much loan China has given to other countries for its one road one belt scheme and at what rate?

Thiru Dec 15, 2016 04:26pm

@Abdullah Even if it is not correctly negotiated for an equal benefit to Pakistan?

viv Dec 15, 2016 04:37pm

The news item in other news paper sums up it all -"The IMF’s Resident Chief in Pakistan Tokhir Mizroev said that Pakistan would have to increase its exports by 15 percent every year till 2020-21 in order to pay back CPEC related obligations". Now the real question is how Pakistan's exports can be increased given FTA with China and expensive power? Going by past track record of China, it spare no room for other country due to its high productivity , cheap rates and high quality of goods.

M. Emad Dec 15, 2016 04:44pm

0.5% is World Bank, International Monetary Fund interest rate.

SB Puri Dec 15, 2016 04:53pm

One point - return on equity is just a figure which is used to calculate tariffs and other end point rates - it is never a guaranteed figure. That is the risk which equity investment implies, unlike debt.

Thiru Dec 15, 2016 05:12pm

@M. Emad True but it comes with interfering and imposing conditions of governance that curb what little pro poor welfare policies our countries have such as spending on agricultural subsidy and subsidised staple foods for poor, education etc.

Ibby Dec 15, 2016 05:16pm

@shahid Excellent comparison with CPEC. Well dreamers will not open their eyes until the reality hits.

PM Dec 15, 2016 05:18pm

Why dont the media takes an interview of Mr. Aziz and clear all the facts and doubts?

PM Dec 15, 2016 05:31pm

Do anyone has any details of how much profit Pakistan will get per year from CPEC and in which way?

Thiru Dec 15, 2016 05:51pm

@AHad Even Uk, the sixth largest economy in the world, has to argue strongly (with only limited success) for locals to be part of the operational, maintenance staff of Hinkley Power Station and for technology transfer. Nations have to protect themselves from long term dependency - it is not wrong.

Israr Dec 15, 2016 05:58pm

If democracy is not delivering then you need more democracy. Similarly, if investment is not delivering then you need more investment. Wonderful indeed.

Muhammad Dec 15, 2016 06:20pm

@hakim by that time sir new corrupt rulers would be there. Dont forget there were no zardaris or sharifs 4o years ago. Similarly there wont be zardari or sharif 30 years down the road but someone else.

Jayakumar Dec 15, 2016 06:28pm

I remember the words of Hassan Nisar that more viable & fruitful than the CPEC would be just having good relations with India. And ofcourse it would be as good for India as well.

Kamath Dec 15, 2016 07:13pm

CPEC is a good project.

Karthik Dec 15, 2016 07:38pm

CPEC: It's a good project, which benefits China much more than it does to Pakistan. If Pakistan was able to construct on its own money rather than depending up on China, it would have benefited it. Now China has the say till Pakistan repays. This money which is to be paid as interest could be used in a better way for the next 25 to 40 years

It's Economy Stupid Dec 15, 2016 07:58pm

In all these calculations, it is not clear who will be paying for the annual maintenance and repair of these infrastructure such as re-pavement of roads?

gROUNDrEALITY Dec 15, 2016 08:21pm

@Really Shy

Are you serious is saying "per capita income is expected to grow from $1,300 to $130,000 in the next 2-3 years (100 times increase)" ??? Probably you may want to go back to school and learn some Math.

Muslim Dec 15, 2016 08:41pm

There is some development going on in Pakistan, please let it happen. Thnaks

akram Dec 15, 2016 09:09pm

interesting analysis however what is need is a cost benefit analysis. I'm certain this would have been done already but you simply need to compare what income Pakistan would gain from these projects. A huge chunk of everything China exports to the middle east, West Africa and the southern mediterranean will go through CPEC.
That is a lot of countries (dozens) whose trade with China will end up being taxed in Pakistan through transit fees with good moving both ways. Add to this virtually all economists agree that in the next 10 years China will overtake the US to become the largest economy in the world. The GDP per capita in China is a fraction of that in the so China has a long way to go. Much of this this will benefit CPEC over the next century.

We should certainly critically examine the projects and their feasibility but we also need to balance with its benefits. Long Term CPEC is truly a game changer for Pakistan.

ZUlqarnain Dec 15, 2016 09:35pm

We are just waiting for godot!

N_Saq Dec 15, 2016 09:38pm

First you build a mega project like CPEC then you manage it. Once the project is completed then it is all about managing it...

ZOOKH Dec 15, 2016 09:43pm

Chinese friendship, sweeter than honey. Chinese interest on loan, higher than Himalyas. Pakistan economy, deeper than the deepest ocean in the world.

Vaibhav Dec 15, 2016 10:44pm

Similar project like CPEC Japanese is building in India .the project name is Delhi Mumbai industrial corridor.Japanese govt is funding 45% amount of these project .Japan has pledged 43 billion dollars of loan to India with expertise in infrastructure,smart cities ,town planers and capital .the loan in given at the rate of interest 0.25% .2% interest rate is also huge .Pakistan must also use diplomacy and take loans and expertise from Japan .Japanese JICA (Japanese international cooperation association) gives loans at very low interest rate .even African nation take loans from Japan instead of China .Japan is also big donor of 3rd world countries.during 2013 they given 3 billion dollars of aid to India .world bank and imf also gives loan at very low interest rate .government of Pakistan also has duty to ask China how it will succeed in future .how Chinese manufacturing will move into Pakistan .under DMIC many Japanese and western countries moving to India for manufacturing.

Kashif Iqbal Dec 15, 2016 10:44pm

@akram So do you mean if products from other countries go from Gawadar to China, we will put tax on it? Would that not make it more costly for Chinese to buy?

Unk Dec 15, 2016 11:27pm

True Analysis return on equity (ROE) is guaranteed at either 17pc or 20pc for China

MNA Dec 16, 2016 12:25am

I am MNA and will make a home around 2crore during CPEC tenure. It will give 25 jobs to local labor. Local Material supplier will get 15% ROI. Layers will get 2%. One chokidar will get 20 year job contract with medical allowance and charpayi.

Shri Dec 16, 2016 01:00am

@akram Chinese invested in CPEC to reduce their transportation cost, and not raise it by absorbing any transit taxes being hypothesized by you. These is no possibility of China overtaking US in terms of GDP. US has 25% of global GDP with less than 4% of global population and it is 5 times bigger than China. Chinese economic growth rate is slowing and there are no new sectors being opened to China and existing ones are already saturated. With Trump in charge, China will find it tough to continue with old trade policies. Author is just being realistic.

Adeel ahmed Dec 16, 2016 01:40am

@A.Jabbar doha You have said it brother! Suez is a trade route through Egypt and Panama Canal is another trade route through Panama.

Both are heavily use by every one in the world. Both have been there for ages! How have they become game changer for those two countries while here everyone thinks that CPEC will be game changer for Pakistan? This trade route only benefits China and will be used primarily by China.

Here i AM Dec 16, 2016 02:09am

@Really Shy - lmao... good one..

Raja H Dec 16, 2016 03:25am

This is the reality of business China does all over the world. I'm not at all surprised.

Ibby Dec 16, 2016 06:20am

@PM Pakistani profits depend on number of trucks/containers which pass through the route. With the route passing through some hostile regions we need to maintain good security thus increasing our annual cost of maintenance. Pakistan will bear all the costs, China will pay as and when they use the facility. The western China is equally under developed as Pakistan. Putting up new industry to utilize CPEC will take time and money on the Chinese side. How the two will synchronize - needs to be seen but one this is sure Pakistan looses way more than China if this project fails economically.

Max Payne Dec 16, 2016 06:41am

Unfortunately, the Chinese are conducting daylight robbery of Pakistan. On paper, China is giving Pakistan billions but most of thst money is going back to China in the form of payments to Chinese companies, chinese exporters & chinese laborers. China did the same thing in Sri Lanka where they built infrastructure, ports & airports which are barely used. The Sri Lankans have realized their mistake but now they owe billions to China. The CPEC is a trade route & if trade routes could make a country prosperous, Egypt would be an economic giants as it controls the Suez canal which is the world's busiest trade route. I really don't understand how in the world will Pakistan pay off billions Chinese debt along with interest, a high ROE, dollar appreciation etc. by collecting tolls.

RPK Dec 16, 2016 06:43am

@sasindran ayadakandiyil Investment in the infrastructure and power sector will always help. Tha main qusetion to be asked is what a country will do with the additional wealth generated? Buy fighter planes worth billions of dollars, missiles, naval ships and so on. Countries like Canada, Germany, Sweden, France and so on will become as poor as Pakistan, if they start spending 50 t0 60% of the reveues on defence year after year after year.

DK Dec 16, 2016 06:58am

China Panama Enrichment Cash will be a great success. Everyone say "Pakistan Zindabad" and move along. Nothing to see here.

Iftikhar Saeed Dec 16, 2016 07:05am

All of us should read the book China- The Gathering Threat It is particularly recommended for the Illiterate segment of our Government comprising of Isaac Daar, Sir-Taj Aziz, Janab No-Was Sharif and so on Thanks

Jim Dec 16, 2016 08:43am

Sri Lanka and the African countries are templates of fiscal failures and China is using the same model on Pakistan. Chinese have two objectives, the short term is trade, which it knows can fail as all these investments are not viable because of the lack of economic footprints to sustain the usage of infrastructure to repay the loans. The long term goals are the ones that the Chinese are interested, Sri Lanka now has lost sovereignty to massive tracts of land south of the port area. This area is completely under Chinese security and is a no go even for Sri Lanka security forces. Sri lanka will not object to any Chinese activity in the region including military ones.This agreement was signed after the Lanka failed to repay the debt.

Avtar Dec 16, 2016 09:15am

@Transit No wonder the Suez Canal is not all that great for Egypt. Last year I crossed Suez on a cruise ship from Port Said to Red Sea. Almost every mile there was a manned checkpost, barbed wire on one side of the Egypt side, and for quite a while on the Sinai side there was equal amount of security. In addition, our ship was part of convoy escorted by Egyptian coast guard. And, if Pakistan were to provide similar amount of security on CPEC , all the benefits will be eaten by security as the route passes through some of Pakistan's badlands.

viv Dec 16, 2016 11:35am

@AKRAM brother you raised a good point and indeed China will become bigger economy than US in future. But if we study China's economic trajectory ,it is evident that China is changing into consumption driven economy rather than export driven. There is decline in exports and growth rates due to this transition.It does not mean that China will totally stop exports but divert to high technology exports.The usual low tech exports are transferring to new countries due to rise in wages in China. Now high tech manufacturing is only feasible in eastern part due to high skill human pool and advanced manufacturing available there. It is not economic for these goods to travel 10000 km from Shenzen to Gwadar by road and then loading into ships.

Dipanjali Dec 16, 2016 03:00pm

@A.Jabbar doha This is the most apt comment I can find in this thread. Just nailed it!!