Of late, another phenomenon - water stress - has entered the scene to make the situation worse. It has reduced the cotton output by another million or so bales. Growers fear both the factors would worsen with the passage of time.

The province needs to proactively seek a paradigm shift, as done by other countries faced with a similar situation. India, being one of them, has shifted almost 70 per cent of the crop to rain-fed (barani) areas, breaking the virus cycle and reaping 30 million bales, instead of 18 million in its traditional core areas.

Can Punjab follow suite? Most of the experts say yes but with two conditions building infrastructure for regular supply of water in the barani belt and developing new varieties that suit the ecological endowments of the areas.

Once Punjab is able to meets these conditions, it can see its production literally multiplying. The barani areas are stretched over three million acres and can be increased by another 50 per cent - almost doubling wheat production by breaking the pest cycle and taking advantage of better climatic conditions.

The Indian experiment of shifting crop to barani areas succeeded on two accounts suitable climatic conditions and regular water supply through rains. Pakistan has identical conditions in its barani belt. The only difference is of water supplies. The fluctuating weather conditions here make water supply highly erratic the rain volume swings between trances of rains (almost zero) during some years to 500mm in the other. The supply of water thus has to be regulated by building small dams.

The provincial government needs to undertake this task if it wants to shift its crop to these areas. Cotton crop needs around 22 inches of water to mature in five irrigations. Punjab needs to accept the challenge, and move to take advantage of its ecological conditions.

Some work is being done, but its needs to be accelerated and made target-oriented. At present, there are around 48 small dams in the area, but hardly 15 of them are fully functional. The rest 33 have either silted up and need huge maintenance work. The Punjab government has around 85 identified sites in the areas and plans to build dams at all these places. The schemes should be followed up vigorously.

Punjab has built the Greater Thal canal that runs through the Thal - six districts of barani areas - desert. Its operation is facing some resistance from Sindh, because it off takes from Chashma-Jhelum (CJ) Link Canal. The best way to resolve the issue is to convert the canal into national advantage, and cotton offers the best option as it generates 70 per cent of exports..

After building water infrastructure, the province needs to develop cotton varieties that suit the ecological conditions of the areas. For this, it would need small and erect leaf varieties that catch whatever sunlight is available during relatively shorter span of the day. They also have to be deep-rooted so that they can harvest whatever moisture travels deep down the soil. Developing such varieties and building water infrastructure is a time-taking task but are worth trying for.

According to experts, cotton in the barani areas would have double advantage. It would escape virus damages by breaking the pest cycle, and increase per acre yield. “In traditional cotton belt, bolls normally weigh two to 2.5 gramme. In the barani belt, their normal weight goes up to four to five grammes,” says Dr Noor Islam, director general (research), Ayub Research Centre, Faisalabad. The number of bolls also increases in the barani areas.”

The history is also on the side of Punjab. The crop was regularly sown in Rawalpindi district and its peripheries till 20 years ago. It slowly lost ground because of weather and allied problems. They need to be solved now.

But the provincial government should start the experiment by modernising weather forecasts system and making it more dependable, especially the yearly pattern. If it can get it right, as other parts of the world do, it can certainly break the new ground for cotton's future.

Punjab tried to take cotton to the area on drip irrigation some two years ago, but then lost the initiative because it could not spare enough money. The initiative mercifully still survives, albeit on 500 acres. It should be revived and followed with renewed vigour.