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Shares rise as investors hope for further stimulus

July 17, 2012


Japan's Nikkei stock average added 0.8 per cent after a public holiday on Monday. - File photo


TOKYO: Asian shares surged and the euro recovered on Tuesday as investors covered short positions and hunted for bargains while awaiting US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's view on the US economy expected later in the day.

European stocks were likely to rise, tracking Asia and a 0.5 per cent increase in US stock futures that pointed to a stronger start in Wall Street. Financial spreadbetters called the main indexes in London, Paris and Frankfurt to open up as much as 0.6 per cent.

Weak US retail sales and a lower International Monetary Fund global growth forecast on Monday raised hopes of more monetary stimulus from the Fed, as Bernanke was set to give his semi-annual Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.

He is expected to reiterate the bank's stance that it will take further action only if economic conditions worsen.

“For global shares to rise, investors will probably need more stimulus and an improvement in economic sentiment,” said Shun Maruyama, chief strategist at BNP Paribas.

Some traders cited the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes as spurring further buying in riskier assets, as they suggested the central bank may be spared for now from having to cut rates further to support growth.

“The minutes suggested a slightly hawkish tone, pushing back expectations for more rate cuts in the near-term, which eased concerns about growth in developed countries and underpinned market prices,” said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole Bank in Tokyo.

Australia's central bank saw “no need” to cut interest rates at its July meeting because a material easing had already been delivered and data showed the domestic economy had more momentum than first thought.

The Australian dollar hit a session high near $1.0300 after the minutes, up from $1.0248 late on Monday.

Traders also said short covering in the euro -- when players buy back the currency to realise gains on an earlier bet it would fall -- gained further momentum after the minutes.

The dollar found support against the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he was prepared to take firm measures on currencies when needed, a hint that Tokyo could intervene in the market, as a firm yen would hurt Japan's economy.


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 1.3 per cent for a third straight day of gains, with Chinese equities leading their peers.

Hong Kong shares rallied 1.8 per cent on a mix of factors including strong performance in Chinese insurers due to solid premium growth in June, rising rail stocks on expectations for more government investment, as well as stop losses triggered on Hang Seng index futures contracts at the 19,200 level.

Australian shares rose 1 per cent as investors moved into stocks with strong dividend yields while South Korean shares gained 0.8 per cent on programme arbitrage trading.

Japan's Nikkei stock average added 0.8 per cent after a public holiday on Monday.

Weakness in US retail sales in June fuelled investor concerns as the retail sector drives about two-thirds of the US economy.

The pressure on the United States may get stronger after the IMF, along with cutting global growth forecast, warned of a dimming outlook if European policymakers do not act forcibly and promptly to quell their region's debt crisis.

“Absent recession, the dominant market driver will still be US policy and cheap money,” said Kit Juckes, currency strategist at Societe Generale.

The weak US retail sales data pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 1.442 per cent on Monday, matching the record low hit on June 1, while the dollar fell to a one-month low of 78.69 yen. The dollar was at 78.92 yen on Tuesday.

The nominal effective exchange rate for the dollar/yen now is around the same as late October when Japan intervened to prop up the dollar, said Hideki Amikura, forex manager at Nomura Trust Bank.

“Azumi's comments today must reflect his wariness that Bernanke's comments this week could further pressure the dollar lower,” Amikura said.

Oil steadied from earlier losses, with Brent crude up 0.1 per cent at $103.49 a barrel and US crude inching up 0.1 per cent at $88.54 a barrel.

Uncertainty over the future of the euro zone's permanent bailout fund deepened on Monday when Germany's Constitutional Court said it would not rule until Sept. 12 on whether the European Stability Mechanism, and planned changes to the region's budget rules, are compatible with German law.