Fitch Ratings expects a “sustainable agreement” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the first quarter of 2027, according to Al Jazeera, though it has not specified what form the agreement might take, which countries will participate, or what terms it may include.

Higher oil prices, recovering oil exports and large financial buffers have supported sovereign credit profiles, the rating agency says as part of its credit analysis.

“Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Iraq have borne the brunt of the fallout” from the US-Israel war on Iran, Fitch says, “facing sporadic attacks from Iran and regional proxies, alongside disruptions to the main route for their hydrocarbon exports”.