THE sugar industry has renewed pressure on the government for permission to export 1m tonnes of sugar. Millers say they may delay the next crushing season unless the government complies. It is not a request or demand; it is a threat. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association projects a 1.25m tonne surplus. That number needs independent verification. Sugar millers do not have a clean record on stock reporting. They have been accused repeatedly of inflating surpluses to obtain export permission. Past inquiries have flagged manipulation and coordination among them. None of that makes industry estimates a reliable basis for policy.

The export track record itself is the strongest argument for caution. Each time exports have been approved, shortages have followed, with the government importing sugar to fix the mess it created by exporting the commodity. Selling a ‘surplus’ abroad only to buy it back later at a higher price is not trade policy. It is a subsidy for politically influential sugar producers. The government should avoid extremes. It should refrain from imposing an outright export ban or greenlighting the export of 1m tonnes on the industry’s pressure. If independent verification confirms a surplus, it can be exported in tranches. More exports can be approved only if the data shows that the local supply is holding up. That said, deregulation of the sugar sector is the real, long-term fix — not case-by-case export permissions but a supply chain that is freed end to end. The market should set the price of cane and sugar, while imports and exports must be run according to fixed rules and not at political discretion. For this, the industry must open its books for independent checks to verify stock claims, and be exposed to real competition, instead of operating as a tight-knit cartel. In such a scenario, millers will not need to issue threats; a functioning market would give them what they want. And farmers would no longer find themselves in the crossfire.

Published in Dawn, September 18th, 2026