Data published by the National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC) in its Fertiliser Review 2024–25 indicates that the total offtake of primary crop nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash) declined from five million tonnes in 2020–21 to 4.35m tonnes in 2024–25. At the same time, the reduced use of phosphatic fertilisers has widened the nitrogen-to-phosphate application ratio to 3.68:1 in 2024–25, up from 3.02:1 in 2020–21, against a globally recommended ratio of 2:1.

Such a significant decline in nutrient (fertiliser) application is particularly concerning given that Pakistan’s fertiliser use intensity — measured in kilograms per hectare — is already substantially lower than that of regional countries such as China, India, and Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s evolving agricultural landscape demands higher and more balanced fertiliser use. For instance, reliance on tubewell irrigation has increased sharply, leading to a more pronounced potash deficiency. Whereas its use has declined further, from 69,300 tonnes to 44,500 tonnes over the past four years. Consequently, potash now accounts for barely one per cent of total nutrient offtake, despite its vital role in disease resistance, stress tolerance, and produce quality.

Moreover, the adoption of high-input responsive seeds — particularly hybrids — is on the rise, which requires greater application of all essential nutrients. This need is further compounded by rising cropping intensity, as farmers increasingly harvest two or even three crops per year. Furthermore, despite the expansion of housing colonies onto agricultural land, the total cultivated area of the country has increased considerably. Taken together, these developments point to a widening gap between crop nutrient requirements and actual fertiliser use.

With high fertiliser prices, additional input costs tend to outweigh incremental returns, which in turn leads to a decline in fertiliser sales

On the other hand, fertiliser prices in Pakistan have increased substantially in recent years, but crop prices — particularly wheat, the country’s largest crop — have shown a downward trend. This growing imbalance between rising input costs and declining crop prices has forced farmers to cut back on fertiliser use, especially the relatively expensive phosphatic and potassic nutrients.

In contrast, countries such as India provide substantial fertiliser subsidies to sustain farm economics. As a result, widely used fertilisers such as diammonium phosphate, sulphate of potash, and urea are effectively available there at around Rs4,000, Rs7,500, and Rs900 per 50 kg bag (in Pakistani rupee terms and equivalent quantity) respectively, compared to Rs14,000, Rs12,000, and Rs4,400 per bag in Pakistan.

So, the government faces a policy dilemma. On the one hand, it aims to contain food inflation to improve affordability for a large segment of the population. On the other hand, limited fiscal space constrains its ability to provide meaningful subsidies to either farmers or consumers. Caught between these competing priorities, the government has resorted to administrative measures to artificially suppress crop prices, especially wheat. As a result, farmers are increasingly bearing the burden of rising production costs and declining returns, which is threatening the overall viability of agriculture.

Given these challenges, the most viable pathway is to increase crop yields, which would help lower per-unit production costs and, in turn, restore farm profitability. However, such incremental yields — critically dependent upon fertiliser — must be achieved through improving fertiliser-use efficiency, which remains very low in Pakistan. Due to faulty agricultural practices, a significant portion of urea either leaches beyond the crop’s root zone or evaporates into the air. Likewise, phosphorus becomes chemically bound to soil particles that plants cannot readily absorb.

In this regard, there is an urgent need to enhance farmers’ knowledge and skills in fertiliser management, particularly regarding timing, quantity, placement, and application methods, while accounting for soil type and pH. Importantly, developed countries increasingly rely on precision agriculture to minimise nutrient losses, but such technologies are still very expensive. However, Pakistan can focus on developing and promoting low-cost, locally adapted solutions to achieve similar efficiency gains.

Equally important is the reorientation of plant breeding priorities. To date, crop breeding efforts in Pakistan have largely focused on improving resistance to pests, diseases, and climatic stresses, but the development of low-input responsive varieties has been largely neglected. In the context of rising fertiliser costs, greater emphasis should be placed on developing input-efficient crop varieties, particularly for wheat and rice.

At present, very few farmers in Pakistan undertake soil testing. Instead, many rely on blanket urea applications, resulting in a highly skewed nutrient mix. Nitrogen now accounts for as much as 78pc of total nutrient use. To address this, soil testing must be actively promoted, like in India, where the Soil Health Card Scheme supports regular soil testing and helps align fertiliser use with actual soil needs.

To promote balanced fertilisation, Dr Muhammad Yasin, former director of the Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences at the University of Agriculture Faisalabad, emphasised that the government should discourage the production of purely nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea and instead promote products that combine nitrogen with phosphorus, potash, and other nutrients. He further stressed that incentives to increase potash use are particularly crucial, given the growing deficiency of this nutrient in Pakistan’s soils.

In conclusion, farmers want to increase crop yields by following recommended fertiliser doses. The core challenge, however, is that high fertiliser prices often cause additional input costs to outweigh incremental returns. Unless this equation is reset, the decline in fertiliser offtake will continue.

Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer, and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 6th, 2026