THE government appears to be bracing for a difficult summer, preparing a hybrid response to suppress peak summer electricity demand amid looming fuel shortages as the Middle East crisis disrupts energy supplies and pushes up prices. The authorities are reportedly weighing a mix of loadshedding, compulsory conservation and higher tariffs to manage increased seasonal demand alongside reduced availability of imported coal and LNG that constitute the bulk of power generation. What makes matters more troubling is that not all constraints are exogenous. Reports of significant coal-based generation being jeopardised due to disputes between Pakistan Railways and power plant operators point to a familiar pattern of mismanagement compounding external shocks. When up to 10 to 15pc of potential generation is lost not to fuel shortage but bureaucratic wrangling, it raises serious questions about governance and coordination within the energy supply chain. Meanwhile, reliance on furnace oil remains a last resort; its prohibitive cost differential with LNG and coal renders it economically unviable except in emergencies, despite its ability to ramp up generation quickly.

The scale of the challenge is enormous. In this context, the government’s plan to enforce two to three hours of daily load-shedding, alongside passing higher generation costs on to consumers, appears increasingly unavoidable if the Middle East situation does not de-escalate soon. The planned strategy underscores how little room policymakers have to manoeuvre in a system that remains structurally dependent on imported fuels and vulnerable to external shocks. But this is, at best, a crisis-management response. What the moment demands is a long-term solution. The rooftop solar boom has helped reduce daytime grid demand, but offers limited relief during evening peak hours when air-conditioning load surges. Solar technology may indicate a more resilient future, but cannot yet substitute for the grid without affordable storage and modernisation of the distribution network. While emergency steps are important, the country will remain exposed to shortages, rising costs and difficult trade-offs in a power sector caught between global volatility and domestic inefficiencies without a coherent energy policy that addresses its structural gaps. Times are difficult for economies across Asia but more so for Pakistan owing to the country’s weak fiscal and external position. Expecting the government to absorb the energy price increase in such a scenario is wishful thinking.

Published in Dawn, March 31st, 2026