• Number of samples testing positive shows substantial year-on-year drop
• Only one child infected with polio so far this year, compared to six cases that surfaced during same period last year

ISLAMABAD: Data from Pakis­tan’s Polio Eradication Programme shows that the majority of the environmental samples collected during the first two months of 2026 have tested negative for the poliovirus.

Moreover, a comparison between the first two months of 2025 and the same period this year shows more than a threefold reduction in the number of positive environmental samples.

However, experts fear that current Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions could create an opportunity for the virus to rebound during the upcoming high-transmission season, which may begin next month.

According to a document from the Polio Eradication Programme, seen by Dawn, 111 out of 126 environmental samples collected across the country tested negative in February.

Sewage samples are considered a key indicator of whether polio vaccination campaigns are being carried out successfully. When the virus is detected in sewage samples, targeted vaccination campaigns are launched in the affected areas to eradicate it.

While a polio case can be reported in any city due to the frequent population movement, the presence of the virus in sewage samples indicates that the vaccination campaign in that area did not meet its target. The detection of the virus in sewage also suggests that immunity levels among local children have declined, putting them at risk of the disease.

A year-on-year comparison shows that 39 positive environmental samples were reported nationwide during the first two months of 2026, compared with 144 during the same period in 2025. Similarly, six children were paralysed by the virus in the first two months of last year, whereas only one child has contracted the virus during the same period this year.

The document also shows encouraging figures from the provinces. In Balochistan, 11 environmental samples tested positive compared with 38 in 2025. In Punjab, only one positive sample has been reported so far this year, compared with 27 during the same period last year.

Data from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa shows that six positive environmental samples were reported during the first two months of the current year, compared with 26 during the same period in 2025. Similarly, in Sindh, 27 positive environmental samples have been reported so far this year, compared with 50 during the first two months of last year.

A polio expert, who wished to remain anonymous, said the current data suggested that the virus could potentially be stopped during the ongoing year. “However, a major concern is that the virus could bounce back due to the current Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions. In southern KP, around 120,000 children are being missed due to security reasons, and that pocket could provide an opportunity for the virus to rebound,” he said.

He also warned that some areas lack proper drainage systems, making it impossible to collect environmental samples there, which could allow the virus to circulate undetected.

The poliovirus is less active during colder temperatures. The high-transmission season typically runs from the last week of April or early May through September.

Speaking to Dawn, Pakistan Polio Programme head Anwarul Haq said that Pakistan was finally receiving encouraging news, as the presence of the virus in the environment had started to decline across the country.

“Most parts of Waziristan, except North Waziristan, have been declared polio negative,” he said.

Published in Dawn, March 14th, 2026