IN the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean, where ancient trade winds once carried spices and silk, a modern geopolitical chessboard is unfolding. Dubbed the ‘new great game’, this rivalry echoes the 19th-century Anglo-Russian contest for Central Asia, but now pits the United States, China and India in a high-stakes struggle for maritime dominance.

For Pakistan, straddling the ocean’s northwestern rim, these shifting sands are not abstract; they directly imperil its sovereignty, economy and military posture. As Beijing fortifies its foothold through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Washington bolsters New Delhi’s naval ambitions, and tensions simmer post-May Pakistan-India conflict, Islamabad faces a precarious balancing act amid escalating threats.

The Indian Ocean is not a peripheral theatre; it is the world’s economic lifeline. Over 80 per cent of global seaborne oil transits its waters, alongside trillions in annual trade. Regional tensions add to the complexity of the matter.

CPEC’s $62 billion infusion promises economic revival for Pakistan. Yet, vulnerabilities abound. India’s alliance with the US, Japan and Australia equips New Delhi with surveillance software and facilitates the bid for undersea dominance. US arms sales to India have surged, slashing Moscow’s share from 80pc to 38pc since 2010, signalling a realignment that sidelines Pakistan.

Security-wise, Pakistan confronts a two-front nightmare. The recent clash intensified the security dilemma, igniting an arms race. Islamabad’s defence budget jumped 20pc to $9 billion post-conflict. But non-traditional threats and climate-induced disruptions strain resources. Beijing’s dual-use vessels, doubling as intelligence gatherers, enhance Pakistan’s surveillance, but invite US patrols via Diego Garcia. Islamabad’s options are narrowing. To navigate this, Pakistan must diversify its approach.

Pakistan’s progress hinges on astute diplomacy to turn its vulnerabilities into assets without alienating powers. As superpowers jostle, Islamabad’s agility will determine if it emerges as a pivotal player or a pawn in the waves. In the maritime maelstrom of the Indian Ocean, security is not just about fleets and missiles; it is about outmanoeuvring the tides of rivalry.

Dua Zahra
Chakwal

Published in Dawn, January 9th, 2026