Citrus season in Pakistan is underway, and exports have begun. As the country’s top long-time fruit export, citrus has seen a sharp drop over the last four years, with export earnings falling from $211 million (558,376 tonnes) in FY21 to just $92.52m (257,300 tonnes) in FY25. This year, exports are likely to decline further if trade with Afghanistan and transit to Central Asian states and Russia are not restored.

The Afghanistan border has remained closed since mid-October 2025. Like many other of Pakistan’s fruits and vegetables, citrus export is also heavily dependent on the Afghan market. In FY25, Pakistan officially shipped 153,683 tonnes — around 60 per cent of its total citrus exports — to Afghanistan alone. Likewise, in FY24, Afghanistan accounted for 59pc, standing at 244,840 tonnes out of a total of 415,448 tonnes. Such overwhelming reliance on a single market exposes major flaws in Pakistan’s export development strategy.

Afghanistan’s importance is rooted not just in the sheer volume of exports but in its role as the primary destination for Pakistan’s B- and C-grade citrus, which constitute over 60–70pc of total produce due to our persistently poor orchard management practices. The financial viability of exporting A-grade fruit to other countries depends heavily on clearing this lower-grade fruit, which cannot be shipped to the Middle East or other quality-conscious markets.

Beyond Afghanistan, Pakistan also sends considerable volumes of citrus to Russia and the Central Asian states — particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — via the Afghan transit route. Following the closure of this route, citrus exporters urged the government to allow transit trade through Iran. However, two weeks ago, the State Bank of Pakistan rejected the Ministry of Commerce’s request for an exemption from the financial instrument requirement from commercial banks, citing international sanctions on Iran. But in a timely and supportive policy move, the Minister for Commerce on Dec 5 granted a one-time exemption for the current season.

Pakistan is grappling not only with declining kinnow exports but also with serious supply-side constraints

Even if Iran’s land route is utilised, the export volume to Central Asian countries and Russia — as reflected in the past two years’ data — would be far smaller than that to Afghanistan and thus highly inadequate to make a meaningful impact on Pakistan’s exportable surplus of citrus.

The closure of the Afghan border is a recent shock; however, the decline in Pakistan’s citrus exports stems from deep, long-standing structural challenges. The country still relies heavily on the 60-year-old kinnow (mandarin) seeded variety, which accounts for over 90pc of Pakistan’s citrus exports. It has lost much of its yield and commercial potential due to climate change and higher pest and disease infestation, particularly in Bhalwal — a major kinnow cluster.

In recent years, yield has declined to around six tonnes per acre, falling below the figures recorded in the 1990s. Moreover, the share of A-grade fruit has been steadily shrinking, eroding the financial competitiveness of Pakistan’s kinnow.

In addition, rising temperatures in March and April have shortened the harvest window and shelf life of fruit. With this, exporters are deprived of the lucrative opportunity to sell kinnow at better prices during periods of low supply in global markets. Meanwhile, in recent years, sea freight charges and domestic transportation costs have risen sharply, disproportionately hurting Pakistan’s kinnow, which is positioned in the low-end segment of importing markets.

The absence of high-yielding, climate-resilient varieties, coupled with declining exports, has steadily diminished farmers’ interest in citrus cultivation

At the same time, several countries — notably China, Egypt, Brazil, Spain, and Morocco — have introduced dozens of new seedless or low-seeded varieties of oranges and mandarins with extended harvesting windows. These improved varieties have significantly displaced Pakistan’s kinnow in several global markets. Due to all these factors, nearly half of the kinnow processing units have shut down their operations.

In short, the absence of high-yielding, climate-resilient varieties, coupled with declining exports, has steadily diminished farmers’ interest in citrus cultivation. This trend is evident in the shrinking orchard area nationwide. Over just five years (2018-19 to 2023-24), the total area under citrus has fallen from 448,866 acres to 385,474 acres — a sharp decline of 16.4pc.

Therefore, Pakistan is grappling not only with declining citrus exports but also with serious supply-side constraints. The solution requires a two-pronged strategy.

First, focusing on developing new — especially seedless — varieties and establishing certified nurseries. This would require greater investment in research and development. Given Pakistan’s limited citrus acreage, pursuing a brick-and-mortar approach, such as establishing new research centres, is not practical. Instead, the focus should be on strengthening existing research centres, which currently lack essential facilities, skilled human resources, and adequate budgetary support.

Second, Pakistan’s trade missions need to put in more effort to identify new markets — other than traditional ones. At present, citrus shipments reach only about 40 international markets — a number that must expand. As a first step, the Department of Plant Protection should prioritise signing sanitary and phytosanitary protocols with additional potential markets, especially those with relatively less stringent quarantine requirements.

Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, and Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 8th, 2025