THIS week, the acronym FOMO (fear of missing out) may find itself elevated to the esoteric jargon of foreign policy. This is because there are few better ways to describe what Pakistan’s leaders must be feeling as their most strategic allies meet in Beijing without their presence. It will be sobering to realise how little the much-touted US-China meet planned for later this week involves them. There are lessons for us.

The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping — if it goes ahead as planned, which is certainly not guaranteed — is a good reminder of the pitfalls of strongman politics. Washington and Beijing know that irrespective of how much planning and strategy goes into preparing for the interaction, the actual outcome depends entirely on how the two men perceive the meeting to have gone. Will Trump get the “big, fat hug” he wants from Xi? Will Xi get to nuance American rhetoric as he wants? Will the menu be well chosen, projecting Chinese cultural sway without overwhelming the American palate? Any perceived slight by either leader could lead to a fraying rather than consolidation of US-China ties.

This recognition should inform how Pakistan is thinking about its newly fortified foreign policy position. We are currently enjoying global goodwill because the civilian and military leaderships have coordinated effectively to win over these two personalities. With Trump in particular, the particular combination of the Nobel Peace Prize nomination, participating in the controversial Board of Peace, and wheeling dealing with Trump family members (crypto deal) has gone down well. The real challenge lies ahead — in turning these personalised relationships with strongmen into more sustainable, state-level bilateral ties. The same challenge, indeed, is what the US and China will grapple with in Beijing this week.

The proposed agenda for this week’s meet is problematic not just for Pakistan but also for international politics and policy. The focus is on US-China trade relations. Trump will be looking to secure the Chinese purchase of high-value American goods, particularly Boeing jets, agricultural produce, even beef. China for its part will be looking to secure low, stable tariffs and limited export controls on Chinese goods, as well as the ability to access US technology. Taiwan is also likely to be on the agenda, with Xi seeking to persuade Trump to adjust the US public position on Taiwanese independence, ideally explicitly opposing it.

Alarmingly, much is not on the agenda of the upcoming US-China talks.

There will be a smatter of chatter on Iran, largely focused on US requests to China to use its leverage over Tehran to secure a deal to end the war while keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. The prospect of Trump visiting North Korea in due course may come up as well.

Here’s what’s not on the agenda, which is alarming, given that this is an overdue meet between the world’s superpowers — the G2, as Trump likes to call them: global backsliding in human rights; cooperation in the face of devastating climate disasters; pandemic prevention; AI safety and regulation; unfettered resource extraction; China’s ability to influence Moscow to end the long-running war in Ukraine; global cybersecurity challenges; nuclear non-proliferation and the establishment of frameworks to guide the use of AI in nuclear weaponry and warfare. All these topics, were they tabled for discussion, would have immediate and high relevance for climate-vulnerable, conflict-hit, youth-bulging Global South countries such as Pakistan. The lack of prioritisation of these topics bodes fut­ure trouble.

G2 dynamics for now have been re­­duced to economic competitiveness, with US AI-fu­elled stocks going up ag­­ainst Chinese ind­ustrial and manufacturing might. Forget the global existential or mor-al issues, to survive in this eagle-eats-dragon world, cou­­ntries must plan to insert themselves in the superpower supply chain.

Pakistan has taken some faltering steps in this regard, proffering a critical minerals deal with a US company last year, establishing Special Technology Zones, and launching the INSPIRE initiative, a national semiconductor training programme. For now, engagement on these topics is liveliest with Saudi Arabia, but Islamabad should be working on how to shift the conversation with Washington and Beijing from security to semiconductors and digital sovereignty.

Based on how the Trump-Xi meeting goes, that may not be possible for some time. Hav­ing mastered the psychology of strongman politics, Pakistan may instead find itself pla­ying mediator between disgruntled sup­er­powers. But if all goes well, and Trump and Xi remain on track to meet an additional three times this year, Islamabad should not miss out on the deals to be done.

The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.

X: @humayusuf

Published in Dawn, May 11th, 2026