AS border tensions escalate, Kabul’s decision to terminate all trade with and through Pakistan in the next three months and reroute its imports and exports via Iran, Turkiye and Central Asia is likely to hit Afghanistan hard. But Pakistan will not be insulated from the fallout either. At stake are thousands of low-paid jobs and the survival of numerous small industrial units in KP relying on uninterrupted cross-border commerce with Afghanistan, as well as $1.1bn in export revenue, government tax collection and access to a long-established market next door. It is, therefore, no surprise that business leaders from the province have urged Islamabad to reconsider the weeks-long border closure, which has already inflicted significant losses on traders on both sides and left thousands of cargo trucks stranded at crossings. A media report indicates that Afghanistan is increasingly shifting its freight through Iran’s port of Chabahar, bypassing Pakistan to avoid recurring border and transit disruptions. Kabul’s trade with Iran has already reached $1.6bn — higher than its exchange with Pakistan — underscoring that its decision to halt trade is not merely an act of defiance but a potential strategic realignment.

Islamabad’s concerns over the Afghan Taliban’s refusal to rein in Pakistan-focused militants operating from its soil are genuine and must be addressed. However, a knee-jerk suspension of bilateral trade, without fully weighing its consequences, will not help break the deadlock, and may, in fact, weaken Islamabad’s political leverage over Kabul and endanger its efforts to expand trade links with Central Asia. The recurring unrest at the Pak-Afghan border, and the temporary closures it often triggers, has long been a source of friction in bilateral trade. Yet neither side has previously allowed such disruptions to derail trade flows for so long. This time, however, both countries appear to be moving in a direction that will benefit neither. As a business leader from KP has rightly noted, nations may have political disputes to settle, but they do not stop trading with one another. The growing trade relations between India and China are one example: despite border clashes and deep political mistrust, neither side has ever cut off trade. As a recent report by a brokerage house notes, it is important for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to recognise that “a peaceful trade route is vital for both economies” for development and prosperity.

Published in Dawn, November 17th, 2025