BELEM: Diplomats seeking a good coffee at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil essentially have two choices: the Australians serving flat whites, or the Turks offering strong brews right next door.

Their proximity is convenient for a caffeine fix but awkwardly close for Australia and Turkiye, which are locked in a stalemate over who sho­uld host next year’s UN climate talks.

Both countries are bidding for COP31 and neither is backing down, creating an unwanted distraction at the ongoing negotiations, where Brazil is eager to demonstrate that climate diplomacy remains effective.

Canberra and Ankara are under pressure to break the impasse and avoid a scene in Belem, a city in the Amazon Rainforest, steamy enough without any added drama.

The host must be chosen by consensus, so unless Australia or Turkiye withdraws its bid, or they somehow agree to share the duty, both countries will miss out.

Such an occurrence would be unprecedented, and see COP31 hosting rights default to Germany, which does not want the job.

Calculated move

Against this backdrop, some observers detect a calculated move in positioning the Australian and Turkish pavilions as close as possible within the cavernous COP30 venue. “100 percent deliberate. The Brazilian presidency is like, sort this out,” Kathryn McCallum, an activist from Climate Action Network Australia, said in Belem.

“They don’t want it dragging down this really critical conversation.”

The close confines did not deter roughly two dozen Australian and Pacific supporters from promoting their COP31 bid on Thursday in full view of the Turkish pavilion and its crescent moon flag.

On a recent evening, an excited crowd swarmed the Australian pavilion when Queen Mary of Denmark — a native of Tasmania — paid a royal visit.

Apart from the lure of free coffee, Turkiye’s on-site calligrapher has proved a big hit, with visitors to its pavilion leaving with customized illustrations and woven tote bags.

But away from the COP30 pavilions, soft diplomacy is giving way to hard talk. Brazil has appointed an envoy to nudge Australia and Turkiye toward agreement before the summit wraps up on November 21, but neither country is blinking.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters in Sydney that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was “maintaining his position in response to Australia maintaining our position.” When asked if confident of a resolution in Belem, Turkish climate diplomat Aysin Turpanci said: “We are still committed to hosting COP31.” Australia had engaged with Turkiye “at the highest levels” and wanted to see the matter resolved, the country’s assistant climate minister Josh Wilson said.

“But it’s clear from my engagement in recent days that our bid has very broad and strong international support,” he said, adding the case for Australia to co-host with the Pacific was “compelling.” But Turkiye, too, is confident it has the numbers.

Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2025