THE HAGUE: The Dutch election climaxed in an unprecedented cliffhanger on Thursday, with only a few thousand votes separating the far-right party of firebrand Geert Wilders and a pro-European centrist party.

With 99.7 per cent of votes tallied, the D66 party led by the energetic Rob Jetten, 38, was just 15,000 ahead of the anti-Islam PVV Freedom Party run by Wilders.

Every major party has ruled out working with Wilders, meaning Jetten is on track to become the country’s youngest and first openly gay prime minister — even if he comes second.

All eyes turned to some 100,000 overseas postal votes that will only be tallied on Monday or Tuesday before a final result can be called. Historically, expats have tended to prefer D66 over the PVV, so Wilders seems unlikely to overtake.

With far-right parties surging in France, Britain, and Germany, the vote was closely watched as a bellwether of populist strength in Europe. Wilders was projected to carry 26 seats in the 150-seat parliament, which would be a loss of 11 compared to his stunning election win in 2023. But there was a doubling of support for the extreme-right Forum for Democracy (FvD) from three to seven seats. The hard-right JA21 also enjoyed a strong gain from one seat to nine.

“The radical right as a whole hasn’t really lost, due to the gains of JA21 and FvD,” Sarah de Lange, Professor of Dutch Politics at Leiden University, said.

When the final result is eventually confirmed, a long process of trying to forge a coalition will begin, with 76 parliamentary seats required for a majority.

The likeliest possibility is a “grand coalition” combining the D66 (26 seats), the liberal VVD (22), the centre-right CDA (18), and the left-wing Green/Labour group (20). “It will certainly take time for the Netherlands to reach stability and a new coalition,” De Lange said.

“The parties are ideologically very, very diverse, which will make compromising very challenging.” On the streets of Amsterdam, Sanne-Louisa de Bruin said she felt “actually hopeful and that’s nice after two years of feeling quite sceptical and not going anywhere.” “I’m relieved with this result. I think we now have a basis for a coalition that is actually able to fix major issues in the Netherlands,” added the 31-year-old, who said she works in energy transition. “I hope the rest of Europe follows.”

‘Historic election’

“This is an historic election result because we’ve shown not only to the Netherlands but also to the world that it is possible to beat populist and extreme-right movements,” Jetten told reporters. Wilders, sometimes known as the “Dutch Trump”, had collapsed the previous government, complaining progress was too slow to achieve “the strictest asylum policy ever”.

“I want us to start quickly (to form a coalition), but only after we have all the information,” Wilders told reporters.

Published in Dawn, October 31st, 2025