A consensus on how to combat global climate issues and the rising greenhouse emissions at the recently concluded United Nations Climate Change Conference — also known as Conference of the Parties (COP28) that had signed the original UN climate agreement in 1992 — remained elusive until Wednesday, some 24 hours later than the scheduled close of the conference on December 12.

After two weeks of deliberations and several sleepless nights, the delegates finally managed to agree on the language of the final communiqué. In the process, the draft had to be altered several times. And the outcome was a compromised communiqué. From “phasing out fossil fuels” to settling for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner,” it was a long and arduous journey.

Although the compromise fell short of promising an end to oil and gas use, it acknowledged for the first time ever in any UN climate agreements that the world must begin “transitioning away” from fossil fuel, starting this year.

The issue was contentious. A clash of interests was apparent. The question was: what to do about greenhouse gas emissions from burning oil, coal and gas? The growing global consumption of fossil fuels is resulting in warmer temperatures around the globe. The planet has already warmed by 1.2-degree Celsius and scientists are underlining that 2023 was likely the warmest in 100,000 years, resulting in storms, droughts and lethal wildfires around the world.

The compromise at COP28 fell short of promising an end to the use of oil and gas, even though it acknowledged for the first time in any UN climate agreements that the world must begin moving away from dirty fuels

The rising temperatures are resulting in dire climatic changes. Glaciers in Himalayas, for example, are melting, resulting in flash floods. Pakistan’s flood last year was attributed to the melting glaciers. “The people of Pakistan are the victims of a grim calculus of injustice,” the UN Secretary General António Guterres told the General Assembly in October 2022 after visiting Pakistan. He then reminded the world that while the country was responsible for less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, it was paying a “supersized price for man-made climate change.”

During a full session of the UN General Assembly on Pakistan’s devastating floods in 2022, he recalled that during his September 2022 visit to Pakistan, he saw “a level of climate carnage beyond imagination”.

The rising sea levels are also posing a danger to the survival of tens of island nations. Unprecedented storms are killing people in those islands and, if the sea levels continue to rise, many of these nations will not exist on the globe over the next decade or so.

Thus, when in the initial draft of the COP28 agreement, the term “phasing out” of fossil fuel was used, oil-producing OPEC+ states were up in arms. They were already aware that pressure on oil and gas — the bread and butter of the oil-producing, single-product economies — would build during the conference. They were prepared to preempt any such possibility.

On December 8, the Guardian reported that OPEC+ had already warned its member countries that “pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point, with irreversible consequences” at COP28.

In the letters sent to its members, OPEC had urged the oil states to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets fossil fuels, rather than emissions,” underlining this would “put our people’s prosperity and future at risk”.

Wire services Bloomberg and Reuters also cited the news, adding the letter was shared with OPEC allies, including Russia and Mexico. In a letter dated December 6, and seen by Reuters, OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais also urged OPEC members to reject any deal targeting fossil fuels rather than emissions. OPEC’s emphasis during the entire debate was to target emissions through carbon capture and other similar possibilities, not fossil fuel.

It was at this stage that energy diplomats went into overdrive at the Expo City of Dubai, resulting in the draft and agreeing on “transitioning away from fossil fuels”. The mention of phasing out was taken off the agreement. No date though was agreed upon to complete the “desired” transition process.

The agreement also made more explicit the near-term goals of ending net emissions by 2050. It further called for the world to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43pc by 2030 compared with 2019 levels.

For countries like Pakistan, a loss-and-damage fund was agreed upon at the summit. This was a hard-won victory by developing countries, signalling a commitment by the developed ones, the major polluting nations, to provide financial support to the hard-hit countries. But commitments to the funds remain vague.

Despite concerns about the lack of commitment to provide more money, Singapore’s environment minister told the media that she was glad the topic had risen up on the agenda.

The sharper focus on finance followed a landmark November UN report showing that developing nations would need up to 18 times more funding than they currently receive to build resilience into their economies to withstand the impacts of climate change.

Till now, money flow remains sluggish. The biggest news announced at COP28 was a commitment of $3 billion in new money from the United States to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which aims to put at least half of its investment dollars into adaptation projects.

“At COP28, the international community made progress in righting the scales,” GCF chief Mafalda Duarte told Reuters, pointing to a total of $12.8bn in new capital raised for the fund to support climate action across the developing world. Some $700 million was also agreed upon by the developed world at the plenary session.

While speaking at the summit, Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar called for immediately executing the $100bn in commitments for climate finance to ensure the implementation of climate change actions by developing countries and mitigate the climate change impacts.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 18th, 2023