THOUGH he managed to win the presidential run-off by a whisker, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will stay in Turkiye’s driving seat for the next five years, cementing his two-decade-old rule. The campaign was a tough one, though the opposition coalition, led by the Kemalist CHP, was unable to dethrone the ruling AKP. What was particularly of concern were the toxic remarks of some of the contenders targeting Turkiye’s Syrian refugees, as well as ‘terrorism’, which is a euphemism for the country’s Kurdish separatist movement. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the runner-up in the presidential poll, despite his stated secularist and liberal credentials, started targeting migrants in a last-ditch attempt to capture the ultranationalist vote. But now that the dust has settled, Mr Erdogan has his work cut out for him, particularly in delivering for all of Turkiye’s citizens, and working to stabilise the tanking economy.

It is not wrong to say that Mr Erdogan has emerged as Turkiye’s most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal. Though parts of the Western media have painted him as an autocrat, the Turkish president’s record is mixed and includes some major achievements, as well as flawed decisions. For one, Mr Erdogan and his party managed to establish civilian supremacy in a country that regularly witnessed military interventions. In this respect, there are many similarities between Turkiye and Pakistan. Over the decades, the Turkish military has, directly and indirectly, sent four civilian governments packing. And like Pakistan, Turkiye shares the dubious distinction of sending an elected prime minister — Adnan Menderes — to the gallows. The AKP managed to checkmate the generals and ensure that they stay within their constitutional bounds. An anti-Erdogan coup was also attempted in 2016, which was thwarted, though the Turkish leader used the opportunity to make short work of his opponents, particularly members of the Gulenist movement, whom Mr Erdogan blamed for the aborted putsch. Tens of thousands were subsequently arrested and purged. Mr Erdogan was also a major supporter of regime change in Syria, a policy which backfired and resulted in millions of Syrian refugees crossing over into Turkiye. From hereon, the Turkish leader should foster a climate of political reconciliation, and work to fix the ailing economy. Inflation is going through the roof and the lira is plummeting, which means that the Turkish voter will be expecting solutions to resolve the painful economic crisis.

Published in Dawn, May 30th, 2023