AS a recent American intelligence assessment affirms, the subcontinent remains a major potential flashpoint for conflict, with Kashmir and militancy being the primary factors that may spark a conflagration. However, this does not have to be a fait accompli. As the recent diplomatic breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Iran — brokered by China — shows, even the most intractable foreign relationships can be managed positively if the parties are willing to bury the hatchet, and if non-aligned actors help prepare the groundwork for peace. As mentioned in the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, though the ceasefire along the LoC is holding, India is likely to respond with military force “to perceived or real Pakistani provocations” while “unrest in [held] Kashmir or a militant attack in India” are listed as potential flashpoints for a conflict. While the report may overplay Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border militancy, and underplay India’s belligerence towards Pakistan, there can be little argument with the fact that the Kashmir dispute, and the toxic Pakistan-India relationship, can transform into a conflict. The report also seemingly reinforces former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s claim earlier this year that Islamabad and New Delhi came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 following the Balakot episode after both sides believed the other was about to deploy its nuclear assets.

Managing this difficult relationship is demanding, but not impossible. Ideally, Pakistan and India should strike a deal in which the interests of both are protected. As India’s late envoy to Pakistan Satinder Lambah recalled in his book, a meticulously discussed peace pact is ready and all it needs is approval from both capitals. It may be useful to revive this document and use it as the base for discussions. Immediate steps by the two states can include restoring diplomatic missions to full strength, and easing the torturous visa process for divided families. But serious dialogue can only begin when a new government takes power in Pakistan, and a fresh administration takes the reins after India’s elections next year. In the meantime, away from the public glare, backchannel talks can always take place based on the China-Saudi-Iran model. For this to succeed, both countries will need to agree on a neutral interlocutor with international standing to help broker a deal. Once significant progress has been made, the deal can be made public.

Published in Dawn, March 14th, 2023