LONDON: Nomura has warned that seven countries — Egypt, Romania, Sri Lanka, Turkiye, Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary —are now at a high risk of currency crises.

The Japanese bank said that 22 of the 32 countries covered by its in-house “Damocles” warning system have seen their risk rise since its last update since May, with the largest increases in the Czech Republic and Brazil.

It meant the sum of the scores generated on all 32 by the model had increased sharply to 2,234 from 1,744 since May.

“This is the highest total score since July 1999 and not too far from the peak of 2,692 during the height of the Asian crisis,” Nomura economists said, calling it “an ominous warning sign of the growing broad-based risk in EM currencies”.

The model crunches 8 key indicators on a country’s FX reserves, exchange rate, financial health and interest rates to give an overall score.

Based on data from 61 different EM currency crises since 1996, Nomura estimates that a score above 100 indicates a 64 per cent chance of a currency crisis in the following 12 months.

Egypt, which has already devalued its currency heavily twice this year and sought an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, now generates the worst score at 165.

Romania is next on 145 having been propping up its currency with interventions. Default-stricken Sri Lanka and currency crisis-regular Turkey both generate scores of 138, while the Czech Republic, Pakistan and Hungary notch 126, 120 and 100 respectively.

Published in Dawn, November 23rd, 2022

Follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Editorial

By-election trends
Updated 23 Apr, 2024

By-election trends

Unless the culture of violence and rigging is rooted out, the credibility of the electoral process in Pakistan will continue to remain under a cloud.
Privatising PIA
23 Apr, 2024

Privatising PIA

FINANCE Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s reaffirmation that the process of disinvestment of the loss-making national...
Suffering in captivity
23 Apr, 2024

Suffering in captivity

YET another animal — a lioness — is critically ill at the Karachi Zoo. The feline, emaciated and barely able to...
Not without reform
Updated 22 Apr, 2024

Not without reform

The problem with us is that our ruling elite is still trying to find a way around the tough reforms that will hit their privileges.
Raisi’s visit
22 Apr, 2024

Raisi’s visit

IRANIAN President Ebrahim Raisi, who begins his three-day trip to Pakistan today, will be visiting the country ...
Janus-faced
22 Apr, 2024

Janus-faced

THE US has done it again. While officially insisting it is committed to a peaceful resolution to the...