Since 1959, Pakistan has approached the IMF 22 times, according to data from the Fund’s website. There are few years in Pakistan’s history during which it was not under the IMF’s scrutiny. In most years, there is a jump in GDP growth rate soon after it has graduated from the Fund’s programme as the government is free from the strings and shackles to pump money into the economy. Money that it does not have and thus necessitate a bailout as the boom and bust cycles continue, sharper and steeper each time.

As Pakistan confronts its worst ever climatic disaster amidst the dizzy political circus while the world faces the fallout of the most significant war since 1945, the roller coaster ride will be steeper downhill without any expectations of a positive upswing. While Miftah Ismail predicts an early end of his tenure, the government promises the sun, moon and stars to generate revenue and plug losses in the hopes of the Fund’s largess. Politically expensive promises that it will renege on at the first opportunity to jump back on the GDP roller coaster.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 5th, 2022