US agencies doubt Pakistan, India’s ability to fight climate change

Published October 22, 2021
Traffic moves along a highway shrouded in smog in New Delhi, India, November 15, 2020. — Reuters/File
Traffic moves along a highway shrouded in smog in New Delhi, India, November 15, 2020. — Reuters/File

WASHINGTON: Pakistan, India and Afghanistan were among 11 countries singled out by US intelligence agencies on Thursday as being “highly vulnerable” in terms of their ability to prepare for and respond to environmental and societal crises caused by climate change.

In a new National Intelligence Estimate, the Office of Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) predicted that global warming would increase geopolitical tensions and risks to US security in the period up to 2040. Such estimates are broad US intelligence community assessments.

Thursday’s report identifies as particular “countries of concern” Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Iraq, North Korea, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Colombia.

Heat, drought, water availability and ineffective government make Afghanistan specifically worrying. The report identifies two additional regions of concern to US intelligence agencies. Climate change is “likely to increase the risk of instability in countries in central Africa and small island states in the Pacific, which clustered together form two of the most vulnerable areas in the world”.

The report notes disparities around global approaches to tackling climate change, saying countries that rely on fossil fuel exports to support their economies “will continue to resist a quick transition to a zero-carbon world because they fear the economic, political, and geopolitical costs of doing so”.

The report also noted the likelihood of increasing strategic competition over the Arctic. It said Arctic and non-Arctic states “almost certainly will increase their competitive activities as the region becomes more accessible because of warming temperatures and reduced ice”.

It predicts international competition in the Arctic “will be largely economic, but the risk of miscalculation will increase modestly by 2040 as commercial and military activity grows and opportunities are more contested”.

Published in Dawn, October 22nd, 2021

Opinion

Editorial

Updated 21 May, 2022

Band-aid measure

A more pronounced impact would have been possible had the cap on energy prices been removed.
21 May, 2022

Bilawal’s defence

BILAWAL Bhutto-Zardari’s robust defence at the UN headquarters of former prime minister Imran Khan’s Feb 24 trip...
21 May, 2022

Yasin Malik’s conviction

THE conviction of veteran Kashmiri freedom fighter and head of the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front Yasin Malik by an...
Updated 20 May, 2022

TTP peace talks

ANOTHER attempt to sue for peace with the outlawed TTP is being made, again facilitated by the Afghan Taliban that...
20 May, 2022

Beyond the law

THE senior judiciary should take care not to overreach in its zeal to ‘fix’ issues it ideally need not worry...
20 May, 2022

Political musical chairs

YET another political crisis is brewing in Balochistan, where old rivals Jam Kamal Khan Alyani and Sardar Yar...