There was much fun to be had in the federal capital this week. Mirth and laughter echoed across the Margallas as the PTI government let loose some serious celebrations for completing — and surviving — two years in power. A battalion of full and half ministers were trooped across to the fluorescently lit media hall of the Press Information Department to unfurl the never-ending list of successes bestowed upon the electorate. Much mutual backslapping also ensued in the cabinet meeting, it is alleged. Prime Minister Imran Khan was informed by the army of ministers he commands that congratulations were in order for delivering what can only be called a sterling performance by all and sundry. Oh, and yes, woe betide the opposition.

That done, what now?

Year 3 is upon the PTI and there are audible murmurs of nervous excitement within the government ranks. Many share the sentiments of Planning Minister Asad Umar when he said in one of the self-congratulatory briefings that kaptaan was now set on the crease for a long innings. PTI leaders base this assessment less on their performance — wise of them — and more on the alignment of political forces that pitch the opposition on the wrong side of the Establishment. Put simply, PTI is alive because the alternative is not. This may not be a perfect situation to be in for the government, but then it ain’t half bad either.

This clocks in Year 3 on a fairly optimistic note. But optimism alone is not enough, as PTI discovered after being ushered into power this month two years ago. The difference between then and now is subtle: today PTI leaders know their optimism masks a grave concern over what to do in Year 3. And how to do it. These are valid concerns borne out of the travails of the last two years. However one thing is going in favour of PTI now — even the most starry eyed among the change-brigade know their rhetoric is running on empty and therefore they need to make things happen on the ground. The middle overs are here and the run rate is climbing dangerously.

But what does this ground look like? And is the outfield fast?

Watch the players. The federal cabinet is due for a reshuffle. The prime minister has been dropping hints, but more importantly, the ministers themselves are reading tea leaves quite expertly. Insiders who have caught the uneven rhythm of PTI’s decision making process say they can tell when the prime minister is frustrated. But they say his frustration has also evolved — even matured — in terms of: (a) why he gets frustrated; (b) how he signals his frustration; and (c) what he does as a result of the frustration. This rather intriguing analysis leads to some premature conclusions. One of these may manifest in a change of players.

But this is not new, you might say. The prime minister has done this a number of times in the last two years — the most dramatic being the ouster of Asad Umar as finance minister — and he is fond of saying that he can change the batting order if he feels someone is not scoring well. True. But this time, PTI officials say, there is a difference: the prime minister is much clearer, relatively speaking of course, of what he wants done in Year 3. This means whoever will be tasked to do what he wants done as a priority will be catapulted to ministerial heights, while those entrusted with areas that will get de-focused may find themselves in the wilderness, relatively speaking of course.

Here then is what appears to be, seemingly, apparently and allegedly, the agenda for Year 3 (in no particular order):

(i) Follow up on the IPP issue and bring down cost of electricity to a significant level (useful for next election campaign; (ii) Enhance the Ehsaas programme (could become key campaign slogan); (iii) Accelerate construction initiatives (aiming to translate into employment figures that can be worn like a political badge of honour); (iv) Finalise Single National Curriculum (eye on electoral campaign value); (v) Karachi

PTI insiders say these five areas are “doables” in the sense that each delivers phased outcomes that can be packaged and sold separately. The vastness of each issue combined with the multiplicity of outcomes and deliverables can produce a political bonanza that has eluded the government these last two years. In other words, the target for Year 3 is to achieve quantifiable results that can be dressed up as ‘achievements’.

On the politics front, insiders say the targets for them are: (i) Ride out the opposition’s APC storm (in a teacup?) without giving away an inch; (ii) stoke divisions between opposition parties (iii) ratchet up accountability pressure (iv) salvage Punjab (no one knows how); and (v) continue efforts to create a PML-N forward block in Punjab.

These are lofty targets for twelve months. Some may be helped along by the fact that PTI will gain control of the Senate in March next year. Prospective candidates have already started soft canvassing and some from the new lot may also find cabinet berths. There are whispers that perhaps the slot of chairman Senate may also be up for grabs but this remains a long shot at this early stage.

Lofty targets these may be but they may not be a substitute for the one thing that PTI desperately needs and does not have: a legacy defining achievement.

The real challenge for Year 3 then is this: identifying this grand singular achievement — feather in the cap, so to speak — cobbling it together, timelining it for Year 5 (maximum) and building the required narrative around it. Imran Khan had promised deep seated reform in critical areas; he had promised revamping governance structures that would sweep away the legacies of colonialism; and he had promised across the board accountability that would be perceived as just, fair and applicable to friend and foe. Which one of these three broad areas can birth an achievement that can be brought to glorious fruition in the next two to three years? The answer will require some ingenuity from within PTI ranks. And also some brutal self-assessment.

Nothing worse than witnessing a set batsman nicking an out-swinging delivery. There’s only so much an umpire can do.

Published in Dawn, August 20th, 2020