
AS Imran Khan’s PTI starts work on government formation after its general election victory, parties on the losing side which are blaming their loss on rigging, may consider adopting a two-pronged approach as they move forward.
The first would obviously be to test the PTI leader’s offer of cooperation in investigating possible irregularities on election day in constituencies where they may have reason to believe the result did not represent the popular will on the day.
A deliberate distinction is being made here in the use of ‘on the day’ issues, as some in the media and Human Rights Commission of Pakistan have already raised concerns, while listing factors likely to have had an impact on the outcome of the elections ahead of polling day.
As the PTI found out most recently after the 2013 election, and before that the PPP in the 1990s, allegations of rigging are not easy to prove whether they are being made with or without justification.
The insipid manner in which any advantage accruing to the PML-N was squandered by Shahbaz Sharif was reminiscent of the stuff political obituaries are made of.
Adopting this path takes resilience and painstaking effort as polling agents have to be deposed, legal challenges mounted, resources deployed for the recount and reverification of fingerprints on the ballot papers among a host of other similar tasks.
Perhaps the best way to move on this is that each party with a grievance or complaint about the conduct of the exercise on polling day should pick up a few constituencies where they believe the most outrageous of irregularities have taken place and seek a forensic audit.
This has to be done for two reasons: to establish the legitimacy of the allegations and equally to ensure that any loopholes in the process that can subvert popular will be plugged in future — on the day at least.
My thoughts are also being shaped by a sense that the current leadership of the major parties, which are attributing their loss to rigging and interference by quarters most of them are reluctant to name, lack the appetite for street agitation.
Perhaps this lack of appetite is informed by their experience that unless they have powerful backers among state institutions, coupled with committed and motivated cadres, it would be difficult to change anything via street protests.
Hence, the second prong of the strategy involves introspection. Multiple talking heads created a racket trying to speak over each other on TV rather than analyse the situation on results night. Ergo, it was difficult to make sense of what they were saying.
But even then the idiot box vigil was worth it. After all, the ‘analysts’ had drifted off the screens, possibly exhausted after rather competitive and prolonged stints on air, at some point, there appeared a pollster on one of the channels.
I am not trying to deny it credit, but I sincerely don’t remember the channel, not even the name of the pollster. Red-eyed and suffering from an overdose of ‘analyses’, I sat up as this man started to make a few points.
The first was that his organisation was correctly able to call the direction events would take on polling day as their surveys showed that the PTI’s consistent messages that Imran Khan took the lead in voicing resonated with many voters.
You and I may have found words such as ‘chor, daaku, patwari (thief, robber, land record official — the latter in rural areas is usually seen as corrupt) distasteful but somehow these were making a connection in Punjab in particular and nullifying Shahbaz Sharif’s development message.
He conceded that most of his surveys were carried out before the arrival and imprisonment of the PML-N leader and ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz on July 13, a mere 12 days before the election.
Asked to explain the extraordinary support for the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, he attributed it to the police reforms which had the most impact; as did some improvements in healthcare and education. Most of the blame for failures was deflected to an unfriendly centre.
Having heard the pollster, I reflected on the 2013 campaign and the election result. The two themes that the PML-N talked about endlessly in Punjab (and PTI in KP as elsewhere) were corruption and load-shedding.
These resonated with the electorate, decimating the PPP in Punjab and ANP-PPP in KP. Post Panama Papers, the PPP may have lacked the credibility to attack the PML-N in Punjab on ‘corruption’ but the PTI had no such handicap.
Had all other factors in the lead-up to the election been equal, even then I suspect that the PML-N would not have repeated its past performance at the polls simply because Shahbaz Sharif’s message was failing to gain traction on the ground and the PTI’s was.
The only effective counter to that was Nawaz Sharif-Maryam Nawaz ‘vote ko izzat do’ (honour the vote) campaign, with all its connotations, as it seemed to draw in and charge massive crowds at rallies before the father and daughter had to fly abroad.
And they had no control over the timing of the deterioration in Ms Kulsum Nawaz’s health, forcing them to extend their stay till their sentencing by the court. This meant they were not able to campaign during a critical period.
There was only one direction that the self-declared ‘sullah pasand (conciliatory)’ Shahbaz Sharif could have taken the PML-N and he did. Was he in denial that the forces he was trying to appease had already found a better horse to lay their final bet on as well?
The insipid manner in which any advantage accruing to the PML-N from the defiant duo’s return on July 13 was squandered by Shahbaz Sharif was reminiscent of the stuff political obituaries are made of.
As the governing party now will have to bear the bulk of the burden of scrutiny, away from the limelight opposition could do well to reflect on factors other than ‘rigging’ that may also have affected its electoral performance.
Admittedly, Shahbaz was an able deputy to his elder brother and an effective Punjab administrator but could not morph into a leader. The PPP also needs to put its best foot forward in delivery and leadership to revive its fortunes outside Sindh and to remain relevant in its power base.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, July 28th, 2018
Comments (20) Closed
The article to try to find out a way to justify through reasons and circumstances the loss of PMML-N at polls. The reason is very simple. PML-N like PPPP is shrouded on the top by one family who is seriously involved in corruption and the leader has been convicted, sentenced. This is clearly the reason that the great majority of people have fallen back from supporting this party. PPPP is an even worse situation at hand as seen in the election results. Both parties have proved and perceived to be a failure over the last ten years even though they may have some credits that are clearly overshadowed by corruption charge. As for any Election issues, the best way is to present cases in front of the independent judiciary in Pakistan in a legal manner with proof to resolve the issues.
The best thing these parties can do is reject family politics and move forward - pakistan isn’t theirs
IK has everything to lose from here. He will be dependent on his coalition partners and will have to constantly appease the establishment, things that he hasn't got the temperament for. And once NS and Maryam are out on bail, he will be made to face the heat like never before. IK may get to become the PM, but he will soon know that he is not cut out for the job.
Very well written.......food for thought for both PPP and PML-N.
Get rid of the ruling families, this is the first step.
Very right in the end about the wanting leadership of shahbaz sharif
Sir you are right. These two major parties must introspect their modus operandi thoroughly. IK for sure defeated them by hook or crook. Inspid speeches of Shahbaz Sharif and Hamza Sharif did not raise anything in Punjab rather watered down the motivation brought about by Nawaz-Maryum rallies. Zardari should relegate himself to back office. Bilawal must talk more tangible. Roti kapra and makan slogan is dead. Now we need how? None of the political parties could satisfy the educated section of the population. None could show how they are going to make Pakistan better. Stupid rhetorics has past the expiry date. We the Pakistanis are not stupid anymore. Now IK as PM must show how federal government will run without loans, how he will tax the biggest tax free entities --- the shopkeepers of Lahore and Karachi.
Current poll results are outcome of political engineering started two years back. IK on his own can't even win his own seat in National Assembly
I don't know what will be the final outcome of the 2018 election but one thing for sure - It certainly jolted the dynastic politics, Sharifs, Zardari/Bhutto are no more infallible.
Very well written. In order to be out from the quandary of bad governance we have to adopt secularism and pluralism . Only way to lead the Pakistan to prosperity and development.
The losers are accusing the 2018 election outrightlg rigged and its results manipulated. I wonder these so called champion of democracy have been in power since the the democratic process in the country. They have never been bothered to bring in reforms to ensure good governance . It was the prime responsibility of these crooked to have better reformed the lectoral process and structure for free and fair elections
Seeing them in the current turmoil is really a source of pleasure and satisfaction
Time for family dynasty rule is over. All family clans be placed with NZ group in special location.
Clan members got deflated, they are not going to accept loss.
if these parties want to survive they will have to be sincere with the people in a true letter and spirit. people have still given them some space -and i suppose this is the last time- to show that they really want to change and work for the btterment of people.
PPP 2013 got 64, 2018 score is 70, then complain rigging. Shame on you. They were losing Karachi in 2013, now lost totally. If a result can be announced in 3-4 hrs from 8500 polling stations, then has to predetermined. India takes 2-3 days to get this right.
@Sid
Mr. Sid,
They are corrupt and because of that they don't
want to leave family politics until or unless they
may be kicked out by the people.
Objective mature analysis. Good advice too, for all concerned parties.
One hopes that this turn around in Pakistani politics proves to be the beginning of the end of dynastic monopoly in politics!
Re sign the COD.
Who is going to turn back Imran Khan's election? No one.