LAHORE: The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is pinning its hopes on defectors of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to make its stakes better in Punjab politics during the approaching vote.

Psychologically accepting the “ground reality” that the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) will be forming the next coalition government, it believes that the step will require its support like in the recent polls for the Senate chairman.

“Many PML-N stalwarts not enthusiastic about the leadership’s confrontational politics have yet to quit the party and will need a new platform to contest the polls. Some of these ‘electables’ either may not find a place in the PTI or some may not like to work under Imran Khan. For them the PPP will be a better alternative,” says PPP central senior vice-president Mian Manzoor Ahmed Wattoo.

The former Punjab chief minister says no one can deny the “ground reality” that if the polls are held in time the exercise results will lead to a hung parliament where the PTI will seek partners to form a coalition government.

“Now the PTI cannot strike alliance with the PML-N and the only option and way out left for it will be joining hands with the PPP, which will be able to get over 60 National Assembly seats,” he says.

However, he sees this alliance only in the post-election scenario and not before it. “For sure, both the PPP and PTI will be contesting elections separately.”

Answering a question as to why the PTI and the PPP are gaining the political space being vacated by the PML-N, an astute Wattoo who ruled Punjab with the support of just 17 lawmakers in a house of 248 MPAs back in early 1990s says people would join and vote for a party perceived as the next ruling party.

He asserts that the PTI, which emerged as the second largest party in Punjab in the last elections, is currently enjoying this status. But, he believes, the PPP can improve its stakes in Punjab if the central leadership, particularly Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, launches a mass-contact drive giving a “personal touch” to the electioneering.

“The personal touch of leadership through physical participation in the election campaign is very important in mobilising the party cadre as well as motivating the general voter.”

He claims that the PPP still holds sway in certain pockets of central Punjab and can win the National and Punjab Assembly seats from there. These include Attock, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot, Faisalabad, Sahiwal and Okara districts.

About quitting party by PPP old guard Nadeem Afzal Chan, he says biradari and constituency “compulsions” are making some loyalists jump the ship.

“Joining of the PTI by his maternal uncle (Nazar Gondal) followed by younger brother MPA Waseem Afzal Chan has created a difficult situation for Nadeem otherwise he has been very comfortable with the leadership.”

Mr Wattoo seeks to downplay the departure and/or joining of one party or the other by ‘electables’ and argues that political parties witness ups and downs.

“The PML-N was unable to find candidates in 2002 as all the potential candidates earlier with it had joined the then king’s party – PML-Q. They returned to their nests soon after the Musharraf era was over… and have a close look at those who are joining the PTI nowadays. Either they’re from PML-N, Q League or the PPP.”

Published in Dawn, April 21st, 2018