THE long war against militancy grinds on, claiming yet more lives on Wednesday.

A suicide attack in Raiwind, Lahore, near a venue where members of the Tableeghi Jamaat had gathered has claimed at least nine lives and injured 20.

That several policemen were killed after the suicide bomber detonated explosives at a checkpoint and that the Sharif family’s Raiwind residence is a few kilometres from the site of the attack have added to the uncertainty about the motive and identity of the group behind the attack.

The banned TTP has claimed responsibility for the Raiwind attack, but the TTP is not known for targeting the Tableeghi Jamaat.

In 2014, following an attack on a Taleeghi Jamaat centre in Peshawar, the newly installed TTP chief, Mullah Fazlullah, explicitly distanced the terror network from the attack.

While terror groups have been known to pivot away from old targets and towards new ones, and the TTP certainly has no compunction in attacking civilians, a thorough investigation will be necessary before the identity of the group responsible for the Raiwind attack is positively identified.

Meanwhile, there are two other considerations.

First, with the annual festival of cricket that has become the Pakistan Super League T-20 championship set to conclude in Lahore and Karachi next week, external forces that do not wish this country and its people well may pounce on any opportunity to sow fear.

It is possible to recognise such threats without resorting to conspiracy theories.

At this stage, the PSL is about more than just cricket; it is an opportunity for Pakistan to demonstrate to the outside world that the country is open for business and welcoming to foreigners.

For forces opposed to Pakistan achieving normality and asserting itself on the international stage in a positive manner, perhaps for reasons related to regional strategic rivalries, disrupting the run-up to the PSL semi-finals in Lahore and final in Karachi could be a low-cost intervention with significant dividends.

The security apparatus nationally and law-enforcement agencies in Lahore and Karachi in particular should be extra vigilant in the days ahead.

Second, there is the broader issue of Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts having reached the point of diminishing returns.

While the frequency of attacks across the country is significantly lower compared to the situation before Operation Zarb-i-Azb, there are still enough acts of militancy to suggest that terrorist networks are either regenerating or have been able to avoid detection by the state.

Domestic networks that facilitate and arm attackers do play a significant role, but it is clear that the leadership of anti-Pakistan militants has found sanctuary in Afghanistan.

Solving that problem will require three-way cooperation among Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US.

Reciprocity will be needed as will sustaining dialogue.

There will be no quick fixes, but determination and statesmanship could effect a breakthrough.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2018