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GDP target of 5.7pc likely to be missed, expect 5.28pc growth: govt statisticians

Updated May 17, 2017 08:09pm


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Pakistan is likely to miss its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target for fiscal year 2016-17 of 5.7 per cent due to lower-than-expected output from the industrial and agricultural sectors in the first nine months of the said year, statisticians said Wednesday.

GDP growth for the ongoing fiscal year (which ends June 30, 2017) is now projected to clock in at 5.28pc.

The matter was discussed in the 98th meeting of the National Accounts Committee, chaired by the secretary of the Statistics Division.

The GDP growth estimates for 2016-17 were built on the latest data available for the last six to nine months extrapolated to the whole year.

According to provisional data, the agricultural, industrial and services sectors are now expected to record growth of 3.46pc, 5.02pc and 5.98pc, respectively.

Agricultural sector

The agriculture sector is expected to grow 3.46pc, a little lower than the targetted 3.48pc, statisticians said.

Growth of crops during the year is expected to come to 3.02pc, with the five important crops — wheat, maize, rice, sugarcane and cotton — estimated to grow 0.5pc, 16.3pc, 0.7pc, 12.4pc and 7.6pc, respectively.

The livestock sector is expected to grow 3.43pc, as expected, said the officials.

Industrial sector

Overall growth in the industrial sector was expected to come to only 5.02pc, compared to the targetted 7.69pc, officials said.

Breaking down the numbers, officials said the mining and quarrying sector would grow 1.34pc, while large scale manufacturing would expand 5.06pc.

The main contributors to this growth would be sugar (29.33pc), cement (7.19pc), tractors (72.9pc), trucks (39.31pc) and buses (19.71pc).

Electricity and gas production is expected to grow 3.40pc due to reduced subsidies for the Water and Power Development Authority and its associated companies and K-Electric.

Construction activity will expand 9.05pc, the data revealed.

Services sector

The services sector overall is expected to grow 5.98pc through the year, topping the 5.7pc target.

Wholesale and retail trade sectors will grow 6.82pc, as they are dependent on the output of agriculture, manufacturing and imports, the officials said.

Agriculture-related services look to grow 3.46pc, manufacturing-related by 5.27pc, while import-related will expand 19.32pc.

Transport, storage and communication are expected to grow 3.94pc.

Finance and insurance are expected to show an overall increase of 10.77pc, mainly due to higher growth in deposits (15pc) and loans (11pc).

General government services are expected to expand 6.91pc, mainly driven by the increase in salaries and inflation.


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Comments (20) Closed

M. Emad May 17, 2017 08:06pm

2017 World Bank growth projections: Pakistan-5.2%, Bangladesh-6.8%, India-7.6%.

Shan May 17, 2017 08:38pm

No need to lose hope. It is the lull before the storm. Our country is poised for a spectacular take off in 3-4 years. I understand there might be some trade-off in sovereignty with prosperity. But anyways, the common man never had any say in the decisions of this country. How does it matter if the boss is Nawaz Sharif, Musharraf or Xi Jinping. Our country has been ruled by politicians and Army almost 50-50. And both have failed us miserably

Amar May 17, 2017 09:03pm

Mashallah that is excellent next year it should reach 6% because of sahiwal coal plant port qasim coal plant and 2nd lng terminal (lng power plants at bhiiki) this should add 3,0000 - 5,000 megawatts to the system

Anusri Tripathi May 17, 2017 09:06pm

@Shan Feel very sorry and helpless to hear this.

N.S May 17, 2017 09:13pm

Economists are predicting a 2% addition to Pakistan GDP with the power sector adding 8-10,000 MW 's of power in a year and after the completion of few more CPEC projects, not more than within three years that could materialize...gear up for more.

shabbir ahmed May 17, 2017 09:38pm

The malady afflicting Pakistan and its economy might be partly due to inappropriate economic/ fiscal policies and overall bad governance, but major cause is the hard fact that Pakistanis are fast losing the generations old habit of hard work and struggle at individual level. Somehow, we all look towards the government for every thing big or small and yearn to have the 'good' life as in Western countries without ourselves contributing a bit for that cause. Isn't it a fact that Bengalis, Siri Lankans and Indians of all hues are more disciplined and willing workers than most Pakistanis.

just_someone May 17, 2017 09:51pm

@N.S As an economist, I can tell you that nothing is a given. The growth that is projected wont happen automatically, it will require a lot of hard work from labor, companies and govt. If you want the country to grow, work at your job and progress. Thats how a country grows, it doesnt grow with people sitting at the couch and typing growth numbers :)

vikas May 17, 2017 09:56pm

Not surprised. And would not be surprised if it is re revised to 5% and then eventually land up about 4.5%.

N.S May 17, 2017 11:00pm

@just_someone Right!! disseminating knowledge, creative good vibes, positive news matters in marketing the country's soft and real image. To break the myths and stereotypes associated with the country...and to counter the negative media onslaught on the country.

Just like you being an economist writing here adds to the good is all about value addition. It is all about image perception these days...

jayesh May 17, 2017 11:15pm

even after signing major projects on cpec with china the gdp will be 5.2%, which is again wrong as exports from pakistan is going down every year and with increase in population i think the gdp will be roughly around 4%. this is just a trick by nawaz shariff govt to fool people and take their votes in coming elctions.

ANWAR S SYED . St.Louis, MO. USA May 18, 2017 12:26am

When there is a hope there is a life. It is OK as long as GDP in Pakistan is growing. I know our statistics Division is far from perfect, therefore one should not believe all the indicators showing growth accurately. There are other world organization have better predictions for Pakistan then our own official predictions. But I am sure if everything goes on track China's investment will make a big difference in common man's life in few years time.

Mohammad S. Khalid May 18, 2017 12:37am

@M. Emad

Slow and steady wins the race.

Hemant May 18, 2017 01:03am

@Shan yes Xi Jinping and his party's very considerate! They do control people in their own country like they are not supposed to even observe Eid! They allow dictator of Burma to let brutal attack on Muslims! Prosperity of country is paramount, no doubt!

I am not sure why with billions are getting invested and infrastructure is getting built, economy is still sluggish! With billions flawing in the economy should be booming!! Because at least secondary demands should be increasing isn't it? I am just amazed with ignorance/

Vikas rehman May 18, 2017 01:42am

If I remember correctly, PMLN government has failed to achieve growth forecasts in every single budget. It was always opposition they blaned, and I assume it would be the same story this time around.

Sameer May 18, 2017 01:43am

And only todag Ishaq Dar informed the nation we are hitting 6%.

Princess_of_DHUMP May 18, 2017 01:46am

@M. Emad M.Emad's personal growth projections: 1000 irrelevant comments against 900 during last fiscal year. Congrats

Kannadiga May 18, 2017 06:12am

Probably after 4 to 5 years it will reach 7 , good going.

Lahori kid May 18, 2017 06:37am

Mr. Dar missing the projected GDP target is no longer news to us, when did this government ever hit the target they projected?

Raunak May 18, 2017 07:09am

GDP 5 ??? What is Pakistan doing ? Every other neighbour is thriving with above 6 GDP..

Fudayl Z. Ahmad May 18, 2017 01:23pm

@M. Emad welcome back. Your comparative figures for the three countries are wrong, once again.