PAKISTAN is under constant diplomatic stress, and needs to come up with some effective responses to counter Indian diplomatic coercion. The country is not lacking in policy and intellectual strength. However, there is a very simple reason for its defensive diplomatic posture: the presence of non-state actors on its soil. These entities have become a strategic burden for Pakistan and consume a considerable amount of its diplomatic and political energies at the regional and global levels. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly could have been more potent and effective had the attack on the Uri military camp not taken place. Though nothing has been proven yet as to who was responsible, India has reacted as usual by blaming Pakistan.

The recent stand-off with India over the violence in India-held Kashmir, and China’s support for Pakistan’s stance on the issue were also expected. However, China is also concerned about non-state actors based in Pakistan and considers them a major threat to the security of the economic corridor. The role of these elements in fanning extremist tendencies in the country is also viewed with disquiet by our CPEC partner. The impression that a few banned organisations are as happy about CPEC as the average Pakistani does not please Beijing’s intelligentsia. It was irritating for them when the head of a banned organisation announced that his group would provide security to the corridor.

Afghanistan and Iran are not just our neighbours but can also become partners in the economic corridor.

In the stressful environment created by India’s coercive diplomacy, what could be a source of optimism for Pakistan? The answer is simple: CPEC. The security and political establishments are both obsessed with CPEC for different reasons. While the security establishment is calculating the strategic advantages it will offer, the ruling party is trying to extract maximum electoral campaign leverage from it. Both are treating CPEC as the ultimate solution to most of the country’s problems, mainly in the economic sphere. But is it too simplistic to view it as a ‘game changer’?

CPEC could indeed be a game changer, but a comprehensive review of internal and regional policies is a prerequisite to enjoy all of CPEC’s perceived advantages. Internally, apart from squeezing the space for violent non-state actors, political consensus is an important factor. Continuous political dialogue among all stakeholders, an active Council of Common Interests, and functional parliamentary and bilateral oversight bodies are imperative for CPEC’s potential to materialise. However, a review of regional policies is equally critical.

No doubt, India’s ‘Act East’ diplomatic strategy is obsessively becoming Pakistan-centric, in which it considers Afghanistan and Iran as vital partners to hurt Pakistan. Meanwhile, although the latter has been struggling to acquire strategic depth in Afghanistan for many decades, its reactive responses in that country have instead given India the advantage. What Pakistan needs is a new ‘north-western policy’ to reduce the strategic stress in its northwest as well as to secure CPEC and increase its geoeconomic potential. The policy should focus not only on the relationship with Afghanistan and Iran but also beyond.

There should be no doubt that regional stability linked with peace in Afghanistan and Iran has an important role in consolidating such gains. Afghanistan and Iran are not merely neighbours of Pakistan but can also become partners in CPEC. Many experts in Beijing believe in such a scenario and its potential to guarantee regional stability.

The Pakistan-Iran relationship should now move beyond memorandums of understanding. Both countries have signed hundreds of MoUs for energy, economic, military and cultural cooperation since the 1980s but very few have materialised. On paper, both countries enjoy friendly and brotherly relations but practically speaking, irritants continue to bedevil their relations. Iran has enormous potential to become a functional partner in CPEC as it is already part of the Chinese Silk Road Economic Belt. The Silk Road train, which connects China’s coastal Zhejiang province with Iran, is a manifestation of the two nations’ shared aspirations. The first Silk Road train arrived in Tehran on Feb 15 this year after travelling over 10,000km. As per calculated assessments, Iran’s involvement in the initiative will boost Pakistan’s economic potential and it was hoped that the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline could become a reality with Chinese funding.

Iranian partnership in CPEC does not require much diplomatic effort, as the country has already shown its willingness to join the project. A statement earlier by the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan was significant, for in it he indicated that the Chabahar port agreement between Iran, India and Afghanistan was “not finished” and “not limited” to these three countries. He also revealed that the offer to build Chabahar port had first been extended to Pakistan and China, but neither had expressed an interest. The Iranian partnership in CPEC could also make it a partner in securing the corridor from non-state actors in Pakistani Balochistan. To achieve this, however, Islamabad has to review its Middle East policy. Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia should not affect its relations with its neighbours and vice versa.

It is important that voices calling for normalising relations with Afghanistan are increasing in Pakistan. The political parties, civil society, and intelligentsia have become vocal supporters of a complete review of bilateral relations between the two neighbours. It cannot yet be said with certainty how the security establishment will look at this growing internal consensus, but this is the time to evolve a realistic framework of engagement with Afghanistan. Islamabad will have to take the initiative.

Certainly, winning the hearts and minds of Afghans would not be an easy task because of historical baggage and multiple other factors. Even though the internal situation in Afghanistan would be quite frustrating, this engagement is essential for improving Pakistan’s internal security, enhancing the potential of CPEC, denying space to hostile countries in Afghanistan and, most importantly, for improving its own international image. Afghanistan is the key to Pakistan’s better relations with the West. Pakistan can capitalise on a long-term friendship treaty with Afghanistan.

Although reconciliation with its north-western neighbours would not be easy, Pakistan will be a major beneficiary of the process. It will enhance its internal security and economic growth, especially at a time when trilateral, quadrilateral and multilateral initiatives have failed to bring stability to the region.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn September 25th, 2016