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THE decision by Brahamdagh Bugti to seek political asylum in India is ominous; it is a dangerous twist to rising regional tensions. The move comes at a time when India has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric indicating it will exploit Pakistan’s “vulnerabilities” in the troubled Balochistan province.
Brahamdagh and other Baloch separatist leaders have been living in exile in Europe for the past many years. His decision to move to India apparently came after the Swiss government rejected his request for asylum. Although there is nothing new about the Indian connection with the Baloch insurgency, the granting of asylum would in a way formalise New Delhi’s use of sub-conventional warfare to undermine the state of Pakistan.
Narendra Modi’s speech on India’s Independence Day vowing to raise the issue of ‘Pakistani atrocities in Balochistan’ in international forums highlighted his government’s policy of what is described as ‘offensive defence’. It is meant to be a tit-for-tat campaign against Pakistan’s ‘proxy war’ in Kashmir. The strategy is to press Pakistan’s fault lines to divert attention from the mass anti-India revolt in occupied Kashmir.
Brahamdagh, who leads the Balochistan Republican Party, one of the largest insurgent groups, fled the country after Gen Musharraf’s regime launched military operations against his grandfather Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti. A former governor of the province and one of the most powerful tribal chieftains, he was killed in 2006 plunging the province into yet another round of bloody insurgency.
Brahamdagh’s decision to seek refuge in India has closed all doors for a political solution.
Unsurprisingly, Brahamdagh and other exiled Baloch insurgent leaders hailed Modi’s harangue. Open Indian support has given renewed impetus to those leaders who seemed to have lost a lot of ground in Balochistan. Interestingly, just months ago, Brahamdagh had shown his willingness to reach some kind of a negotiated political settlement with the Pakistani authorities.
In fact, last year, Brahamdagh even had talks with the then Balochistan chief minister Abdul Malik Baloch and federal minister Abdul Qadir Baloch in Geneva, raising hopes of his returning to the country and ending his nine-year exile. But it did not happen, as something went wrong somewhere. According to some reports, Brahamdagh sought guarantees, which the security establishment was unable to provide.
Now the situation seems to have reached a point of no return after he rejected any further negotiations with the authorities here. He is now demanding an internationally supervised referendum in the Baloch districts of the province to resolve the crisis. His decision to seek refuge in India has closed all doors for a political solution.
Our flawed policy of support to the Afghan Taliban insurgents has been a major source of tension with Kabul and our Western allies; it has been fully exploited by India to keep the Balochistan pot boiling. Increasingly hostile relations with Kabul have further complicated Pakistan’s predicament. For long, Islamabad had complained about the Baloch insurgents taking sanctuary across the border in Afghanistan and being actively supported by Indian intelligence agencies. Brahamdagh and other Baloch insurgent leaders also lived in Afghanistan for some years before moving to Geneva.
It is true that India has played a role in fanning the flames of insurgency in Balochistan, but we must also reflect on what has led to this situation. Balochistan had remained relatively quiet for almost two decades, after the end of the insurgency in 1980 until the return to civilian rule in 1988, which brought the Baloch nationalists into the political mainstream. What has exacerbated the situation, are our uneasy relations with another neighbour, Iran. Through our own folly, we have made our worst fears of opening up two fronts come true. Moreover, we still don’t seem to have any realisation about how the proxy war in which we have been involved has threatened our own national security.
Since Balochistan became part of Pakistan, Baloch nationalists have led five insurgencies — in 1948, 1958-59, 1962-63, 1973-77 and from 2005 to date — which was brutally suppressed by the state. Unlike the past, the educated middle-class youth, rather than tribal leaders, are leading the current separatist movement. The policy of killing and then dumping bodies of political activists had pushed increasing numbers of people, particularly among the young generation, into the fold of separatist groups.
Although their major demands relating to gas royalties and the allocation of federal resources remain to be fulfilled, democracy provided the Baloch population with at least a sense of political participation. But the killing of Akbar Bugti ended that relative calm. Instead of addressing the genuine grievances of the Baloch people, the military-led government resorted to force causing thousands of tribesmen to flee their homes.
An overwhelming majority of Baloch nationalists had rejected secession and struggled for autonomy within the framework of the Pakistani federation. But state repression blurred the division pushing many moderates to ally themselves with the radicals. The situation improved hugely after the nationalist parties decided to return to the democratic political process and participate in the 2013 elections. Though the turnout of voters in many areas remained low the elections came as a setback to the separatists. The formation of a coalition government led by Dr Abdul Malik Baloch brought some political stability. But powers have still not been fully transferred to the elected government.
The military seems to have contained the insurgency to some extent, but there is still a long way to go before the trust of the alienated population in the province can be restored. The conflict has even divided political families. While Akhtar Mengal is leading his party into the elections, his younger brother Javed Mengal has his loyalties with the insurgents.
Similarly, Changez Marri one of the brothers of Hyrbyair Marri, the leader of the Baloch Liberation Army, is a minister in the provincial government. Certainly, the government and the security agencies are confronted with huge challenges, but an uninterrupted democratic process is the only way to restore the confidence of the people of Balochistan in the federation. External forces can only fish in the troubled waters.
The writer is an author and journalist.
Published in Dawn, September 21st, 2016
