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THE crowd at his rallies keeps getting bigger and Imran Khan’s tenor angrier and harsher. He keeps the audience enthralled by his relentless attack on the government that has failed to deliver. There is surely a groundswell of public support for the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) revealing a rising populist backlash against a dormant and a self-serving system. The party is seen as a catalyst for change despite chips of the old block sharing the stage with the harbinger of ‘Naya Pakistan’.
Imran Khan is all poised to launch what he describes as the “final war”. He says he has reached the threshold of his patience and that he cannot wait any longer. He has set Nov 30 as D-Day for the storming of the citadel. This will be his second attempt over the last three months to force the government to surrender.
His confidence seems to have been bolstered by the huge public response to his recent rallies across Punjab that has become the main political battleground. An apparent division within the powerful civilian bureaucratic establishment has added to his buoyancy. But can the PTI succeed in what it has so far failed to achieve during its protracted sit-in? Without Tahirul Qadri’s dedicated followers, the staying power of the largely young and middle-class supporters of the PTI remains doubtful.
Surely, populism and the politics of agitation have their own limitations. It is one thing to draw large crowds at rallies and quite another to sustain the momentum and bring down an elected government, however inept it may be. One expected Imran Khan to have learnt this lesson from the experience of the previous march when the entire parliament across the divide stood up to defend itself against the joint assault launched by the PTI-PAT combo.
It is one thing to draw large crowds at rallies and quite another to sustain the momentum.
The power matrix does not seem to have changed much despite the party’s rallies drawing larger crowds. The only thing that has changed is that the party has lost its only ally with Qadri deciding to take a break from his quest for revolution. Being a shrewd operator, the cleric left the field after sensing there was no hope of a military intervention to help his cause. With no support from any other political party, the PTI is left all alone to fight the “final war”.
It is not clear at all what the party really wants to achieve from its exclusive politics of agitation. By declaring Nov 30 as the “final war”, Imran Khan has further got himself into a bind. So what’s next if the march does not deliver? Does he really believe that he can bring down the entire system by assembling a large crowd — and to what end?
Even though most of the PTI’s demands for electoral reforms may be valid and are also supported by most political parties, the party’s decision to stay out of parliament has damaged its cause. Its persistence with the policy of mindless agitation has caused it to lose a good opportunity to achieve consensus on an independent inquiry into the alleged vote fraud in the last elections and bring in electoral reforms.
It may be true that the government’s own intransigence and hubris have been a factor in the deadlock, but the PTI’s insistence on the demand for the prime minister to step down has not helped resolve the crisis either. Now Imran Khan himself admits that they were close to reaching an agreement on five out of six points. He has also backtracked on the prime minister’s resignation issue.
But the realisation has come too late in the day. By taking a rigid position the PTI has allowed the government to renege. The PTI leaders are certainly living in a make-believe world if they think that change can be brought about merely by empty rhetoric atop containers.
In the meanwhile, there is total confusion over what the party really stands for. It is good to talk about the rule of law, eliminating corruption and untainted democracy. For sure, Imran Khan has motivated the country’s large youth population and urban middle classes. Large participation by women in the PTI’s rallies is an encouraging phenomenon in the country’s politics.
But the party lacks clarity on how it will bring about the promised change. Agitation and abusive language used against rivals and those not agreeing with the views of the party is certainly not the way of a democratic culture of tolerance and healthy political debate. It is not very promising to see a growing number of political opportunists occupying the container on D-Chowk.
While Sheikh Rashid has been a permanent fixture on the party stage spewing vitriol on anyone and everyone, it is amusing to now see retired Brig Ijaz Shah by the side of Imran Khan wearing party colours. The former chief of the Intelligence Bureau was believed to be the man responsible for manipulating the 2002 elections. I remember doing an investigative report on how those elections were fixed. Having such people in leadership is certainly not expected from a party that claims it is fighting to change the political culture.
Its politics of permanent agitation has diverted the party’s attention from providing effective administration in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which it rules. It could have set a great example of good governance by focusing on the affairs of the province rather than have the chief minister spend time on the container.
It is back to the sealing of the capital by containers as the administration braces to deal with the Nov 30 march. With the growing mass following the PTI, the party will surely be able to draw a large crowd. But the main concern is about where this politics of confrontation will lead. Any use of force will lead to more violence. It is a matter for both the PTI and the government to ponder.
The writer is an author and journalist.
Published in Dawn, November 26th, 2014
Comments (56) Closed
Its time to take Imran seriously. The guy means business. I applaud his energy and conviction.
Good analysis. Imran has only brought about insecurity to Pakistan so far. He has no strategy, no far sight and no plans on how to brings about the change that he talks about because if he knew how to do it then there would be no poverty and corruption in KPK. Someone needs to knock some sense in to him before he kills his chances for next time as well.
Populism only takes hold in a society which is rife with uncertainty and corruption of all sorts...where social contract between government and the people is broken...and hopelessness abounds...unfortunately Pakistan currently finds itself embroiled in such a quagmire where social contract between rulers and ruled seems to have broken...
Imran Khan has this hunger for power, and that is all. This article draws false equivalence between the destructive actions of Imran Khan who has not even attempted to deliver on his big promises in the 2013 elections, vs the constructive actions of Nawaz Sharif who is focussed on delivering on his mandate.
Unfortunately many of PTI followers are blinded by the fact that IK is manipulating the situation. We and more over the youth will hopefully sooner rather than later wake up to face the harsch realities. Especially when I see the people he associates with on that Container.
Mr. Zahid Hussain, a pleasure reading your analyses, full of substance and good common sense.
So what is the bottomline. The bottomline is that IK has the support of middle classes in Pakistan. Then what is the percentage of people in Pakistan who area middle class? Although he may be able to draw big crowds of young middle class people, his chances of achieving success is NIL.
Although PTIs ideology is remarkable, it's methodology is beyond unacceptable. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered. Even though we are witnessing all of this, I hope the workers of PTI have a better reason for whatever they are doing.
Good observations.
No doubt people are taking Imran as a saviour as they need one. Imran's popularity is not result of any of his policies or performance in KPK. It is result of bad governance of central and Punjab governments. Imran is popular as he is the only new face in political arena. It also shows that no able leadership is available to people of Pakistan who badly wants one. Besides knowing Imran's limited and highly compromised capabilities we are just wishful that Imran turns into the 'Masiha' of all of our problems.
Political tags - such as royalist, communist, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire... we have lost our trust and faith in every political leadership..i don't blame this nation for that...they have been bent and broken in to a better shape... .only the time will tell what Imran khan was truly made off...
Good column and analysis, all the non admissible allegations in court of justice levied by Imran Khan against last election and using abusive personalized language for fellow politicians have discredited the democratic norms and system. In long run this campaign will harm PTI as well, while casting vote masses will not be dumb enough to vote for bad mouthing rather they will tilt towards performance and services of the provincial governments represented by all big political parties at the moment. As there is end to everything, PTI has jumped into point of no return, I would wish that wise thinking shall prevail in their ranks to roll back this agitation saga to help our country for normalization.
You are watching the situation through the window that installed by the status quo otherwise ground reality is different. False hopes are erracted on daily basis to avoid upcoming turmoil and trying to creat confusion but no avail. We have been going through political evolution and will achieve prosperity in future.
Watching this author and Dawn for some time now. Both of them appear to have a heavy tilt towards PML-N and against PTI.
He is desperate for power as this is his last chance . But the fact is that there is no short cut even for him. He actually thinks he is above the laws but has at time not revealed any thing concrete about how he going to bring the change. It is always the same accusations and hate speeches towards NS. He is so obsessed and has all this yes men around him that he does not even realize it himself any more. More over I am really worried now if he does win one day how will he run this country with the people that are with him on the container that are full of the same lot that we already have now. Besides, I am sure he is good case to study for many physiological analyzations.
One can agree with the writer only to the extent that populism and political agitation has a limited shelf life unless it mutates into a mass uprising like Tahrir Square and perhaps beyond simultaneously replicating it in all major cities Karachi and Lahore in particular. The storming of Parliamentary building was a Dr Qadri special that did not go down too well as none of the Parties had a strategy to deflect waves after waves of tear gas shelling. If Imran on 30th November converts populism into numbers to put a siege around Islamabad and simultaneously block trunk roots in and out of major cities to curb supplies, it may act as a game changer and it may certainly awaken the Court service who has turned away at critical junctures. The Court has a responsibility if put correctly to use in ordering an audit of four constituencies, it may be a game changer to end that impasse extending over 100 days.
Imran Khan must understand that any change he intends to bring has to come within the bounds of this system. He can not break the status quo by siding with and seeking help from Status Quo forces. False Bravado and extraordinary support of media (including Dawn) won’t help. He is wasting his time, which otherwise can be spent productively in the parliament. And that precisely is his job, for which people have elected him. He is now a senior politician, he should act like one. His voters and supporters may be, but he is no longer teenage angry young man. It is about time, he act like a mature politician. And most certainly, this is not too much to ask...
I don't know what kind of books this gentleman have written, may be to please specific genre he qualifies as a 'writer'.
Mr Zahid is in complete denial from the word go until end ........ in one quick brush he is supporting IK and in the very next stroke he is against IK.......... the writer seems confused and in tantrums as far as his heavy english/ spirit is concerned.... rest of the so called article was publish for the sake of publishing same repeated paras with different caption. well done Dawn.
regarding some biased and govt-backed words oozing out in above article, there's hardly anything worthy to comment about. history in making Nov 30............. either we will remain slaves to entire tirade of lunatics ruling the country one after another and we will reach near extinction. no other option seems possible.
You the writers and other critics keep on criticising the PTI's KP government and how they should set a standard good governance in KP. Agreed, but has anyone bothered to go to KP and find our first hand if anything has improved there or not? Has the police culture really changed? Has the patwari systems being quashed? Has the educational systems being improved? Are the ministers accessible to the masses? Is the KP members focused on legislation? is the public funds being utilized honestly? No one bothers to do a honest, first hand piece on this. Instead the media is either sitting in Lahore, Karachi or Islamabad and chanting the same slogan of "nothing has changed in KP". If the above mentioned reforms have happened or in the process of completion in KP then yes this is a BIG change and your argument holds no ground. But it is time that you also come up with facts instead of just asking for facts!
Pretty balanced article with the exception of a paragraph in the middle that starts with "But the party lacks clarity on how it will bring about the promised change..." Knowing IK as an honest and clean politician better than any other in the lineup, why would someone question how will he bring the change? All we need is an honest and patriot leader. Let's accept that the status quo need to change and the only person spearheading the effort for that change is IK and PTI. Further look at the KPK governance in past 18 months to see how will the change come. Compare that to Sindh or Punjab where the police only serves politicians. Without going into details of KPK achievements just do a simple comparison with other provinces.
He has the flair for dramatics and you got to hand it to the guy he does it with style, From dharna to rally and rally to dharna in matter of minutes, must have logged in whole lot of flying hours even in private plane its a lot of work. whether or not he is able to dislodge Nawaz Sharif that remains to be seen, with close to 6 crore and counting for the plane ride alone, one thing is certain he is going to make a serious dent in Jahangir Tareen's fortunes.
a sensible analysis by the author on the prevalent situation.
Zahid Hussain are you serious in asking Imran Khan to pack up his movement and go home? It means you are ok with the state of this country and would be happy for Hamza and Bilawal to rule over your kids through rigged elections in the future. I dont want that for my children - or for yours. God forbid that Imran Khan fails or something happens to him. This is our last chance.
The only reason for the protests is vote verifications in 4 constituencies. Why is the government not willing to do that? The analysits may conspire the situation but that is not going to help anyone. The pressure will increase day by day.
Oh how conveniently you have overlooked the fact that PTI has made institutional changes in KPK like conflict of interest laws, right to information etc. :)
Imran is taking things to a limit where it we can end up with the big boys eating the cake or he spoils his next chance for 2018, both ways he is a loser. The people around him like SR and IS are all tainted.I hope he gets just 15 minutes in the container to read this very sensible write up.
@Zahid no poverty? Are you kidding me? No one has a magic wand to improve things in a wink of an eye. I am not supporting anyone here but got swayed by your comment, where is rational thinking capacity, a humble request before bombarding such statements ruminate over them before that whether they make any sense or not.
In 17 years, the biggest failure of IK is that he has failed to develop PTI into an institution. Instead of having an ideology and a committed cadre, it is now full of "electibles" and corrupt bureaucrats. What happens after IK? Even if the party were to survive, do those same electibles take the reins of the party? If yes, then what is the difference between PTI and PPP/PML-N?
He should block GT Road as well as Motor Ways to take his demands into action.
Unfortunately, NS and cronies are not kind of people who consider 'awam' or concern about their well being.
PTI this time come with full force and consider to take side steps to force this coward but stubborn NS.
An absolutly brilliant and congent analysis which sums up the dilemma that PTI has created for itself and finds no way of getting out. The author is absolutly right that PTI leaders apppear to be living in a make believe world far removed from the realities on the ground.
So what’s next if the march does not deliver?
well, there will yet be another deadline for yet another final revolution!!
The malaise that inflicts Pakistan also inflicted India. In India 2 politicians arose to tackle it. One was Kejriwal and the other Modi. We know the different paths followed by the two and the consequences. I supressed my fear that IK could be another Kejriwal and hoped that he will be Pakistan's Modi. Regrettably, in his hurry to taste the fruits of success he surrounded himself with the corrupt rejects of other parties. Modi's patience of more than 10 years was not the ideal that appealed to IK. He wanted power NOW. His threats to NS that he was going to chase NS from the PM house to Raiwind showed me his hollowness. I realised that he has neither the patience nor the ability of Modi. He is now like the proverbial little boy who shouted "Wolf" far too often. His claim about the effect of his 'sing & dance' show on 30 November reminds me of a couplet; "Yeh bazzoo merey Aazmaiey huey hain".
@Zahid with 18 months in KPK gov what kind of changes you expect ? when on the other hands Sharifs are in charge of punjab for 6 time and PPP in charge of sindh similar period, ARE U a paid critic ????
Zahid Hussain logic is incomprehensible. Can he answer just one question," the american civil war erupted because of many factors with one of the decisions of its supreme court being one of the factor. In case of Pakistan, the chief judge of the country sold his conscience and rigged the election in favor of N-league. If we were living in West, it would have been like Watergate scandal and by now this system would have gone with Iftikhar Ch. and nawaz shareef behind the bars. But since the whole system is corrupt and degenerated to the rock bottom, so no remedy for PTI from the system itself. Why Zahid hussain does not write on this? why his moral conscience is sleeping and where is his knowledge of history? He is morally bankrupt person but , mind you, these articles wont make any difference. Imran Khan has awaken this nation and Inshallah Naya Pakistan is in the making. Long live Imran Khan, Long live PTI. Go and get these thieves we are with you and , inshallah, you will get the help of God also due to prayers of millions of oppressed Pakistan which cannot be seen by Zahid hussain.
By rejecting demands to give justice does government and courts have finally decided to kill raising voice for ever? Do they really believe that this movement will die, if no so, what will be the end? Very simple,the end of muk mukka,
@khan You claim the writer does not have the decency on how to write. You can differ with the author of this article without being rude. You have every right to differ with the opinion of the author but criticism is much more effective when done in a proper way. BTW I am in no way judging you or anything. I just didn't like your comment.
Good analysis but I donot agree with many arguments. One side you argue about complete 5 years of govt that was result of rigged elections. You want to give more time to these people to put Pakistan in worse state. Poor people have so many problems and it is hard to live. The PMLN and PPP have many years but no improvement in life of common man. What can they do now in this 5 years period instead expanding their businesses. Of course PTI is not completed many projects in KPK but they are going in right direction. I am in favour of bringing all culprits to accountability who were involved in rigging and filling their pockets with the money of poor people
Aggression breaks the status quo and we currently need the aggression of IK to break system of status quo, however I accept the fact that he has made mistakes but he is still far better than others in the country and a reliable person. I am sure he will lead the country in a better way as he has always lead other teams be it Cricket, Hospital, College teams. Good luck IK! Whole nation stands with you and against the status quo!
Totally disagree with author.
The government and the opposition have no concern about the masses. They both are two sides of the same coin and only protect their own interest. Leader like Imran Khan is a real a hope otherwise we the ignorant will be suppressed for the life to come. Its time to stand up with Imran. And secondly, being my self from KPK, I have seen alot of improvements in education, health and police departments. The Policeman thinks twice before working for bribery.
I thought the sit-in was his 'last war' !!! ;)
@Zahid - you better get good glasses.
@ahmed Its a fake mandate, we don't want fake government at all.
What is the problem with recounting for 30 or 40 constituency if Nawaz Sharif thinks the election is free and fair?
@Jameel - On this side, all eyes are closed.
Imran khan is doing right , his enthusiasm is great, i think we should give him a chance to at least see what he can do...
Pakistan is Given a chance to Change its System, IK is a Gift for us, Lets not fail Him. He is Fighting for us Lets support him with our Votes People. I am nobody's Supporter, Never voted for anybody, But THIS IS THE MAN who can do something for this Land. I request 'Lets Not fail him'.
Excellent. Is there still some method to this agitational madness???
@khan You are using the language of your leader. Just like IK you have no decency and no respect or anyone else. The writer is a knowledgeable person and presenting his case by disagreeing with IK in a respectful manner. You and your leader both lack this quality.
Slice it any way you want to.Pakistan ,unfortunately has become a fiefdom of Sharifs and Bhuttos-Zardaris cartel. It is not for the love of democracy that both families have banded together against IK ,they fear that PTI is becoming a formidable force against their dynastic rule.Ineptness ,cronyism are the hallmarks of their modus operandi. If the nation does not stand up and demand accountability, then come tomorrow , status quo will rule the day. Thomas Jefferson, one of the founding fathers of American revolution said," The spirit of resistance to government is so valuable on certain occasions that I wish it always to be kept alive".
The only factor to get power is his age . I feel sorry for Imran Khan and his followers. Rule on KPK rest of the tenure and move to London and spend rest of the life in peace.
Running a government is not leading a cricket team. Everybody knows cricket is by chance. Working as a senator is real hard work, which IK showed that could not do this kind of hard work by remaining absent absent from the senate.
@s.khan Excuses, so IK needs 60 years, and I am afraid he does not that much time.
Imran Khan is a honest man. No one can bring out his corruption. Therefore why we sport corrupt ruler elite.
Its high time tht ppl shud also step up a lil and join him there at da venue instead of watching it on tv as a "reality game show"
@khizer A man who has collected so much money from overseas some of which spent on hospital and with the rest built palaces for himself without paying any taxes using title of non profit organization.
@Zahid: Neither Imran Khan nor an Angel from Heaven has moral duty or power to change Pakistan simply because Pakistan is a civilized country with its own constitution and laws. If Imran Khan wishes to bring about changes, either he should lobby members of Parliament to implement his proposed changes or go to Pakistani courts to order implementation of the changes. Any action to force changes through mob, gangs, threats, sit-ins, Dharna, invading Parliament House, government properties may be appropriate in uncivilized lawless country but not in Pakistan. I am amazed to see why government has not used full force of law to nip the evil in the bud. I must say this, Jinnah achieved Pakistan through legal means. He never initiated or participated in protest marches, Dharna, civil disobedience and other unlawful activities.