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IF there had been a Richter scale for political earthquakes, I’m sure the shockwave caused by the Brexit vote to leave the EU would have measured 10. On June 24, as the ripples of this momentous vote spread around the world, markets shed $2.5 trillion as share prices and the pound tumbled. And while those who had supported Britain’s exit from the world’s biggest trading bloc celebrated, there was a palpable sense of fury among those who had voted to stay.
Although Brits will be paying the price of this folly for years to come, some costs became due as soon as the result became known. David Cameron, the British prime minister, announced his resignation almost immediately. While he will stay on till October to ‘steady the ship’, and give the Conservative Party time to elect his successor, his position will be that of a figurehead. As things stand today, Boris Johnson is the odds-on favourite for the job, but he may find it a poisoned chalice, given the turmoil in the markets, as well as the fiscal pain that is bound to cripple the UK economy.
But it is the political fallout that will be even more lethal.
While Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, it finds that it is being dragged out against its will. So its First Minister, the popular and very effective Nicola Sturgeon, has announced that a second referendum to leave the United Kingdom is now back on the table. Many in Northern Ireland have voiced the same sentiment. Both hope to apply for membership to the EU once they are out of the UK. This possible unravelling of an ancient union will greatly diminish Britain’s place in the world, one already reduced by Brexit.
And the political impact is not restricted to the UK: many right-wing voices in Europe have welcomed the result of the Brexit vote, and are demanding referendums in their own countries. Should this sentiment gain force, it could result in the ultimate break-up of the EU. This is one reason the divorce negotiations between Brussels and London are likely to be tough and bitter. People like Boris Johnson had been predicting a pleasant break-up, with EU officials bending over backward to keep Britain in the single market. This is highly unlikely, judging from the accusatory declarations from Paris and Berlin.
In Britain, apart from the leadership changes taking place in the ruling Conservative Party, Labour, too, is under pressure to examine the role of Jeremy Corbyn in the whole campaign. Critics have accused him of being too detached and lacklustre in his appeals to Labour supporters to vote to stay. Polls show that many of them voted to leave, revealing the erosion in Labour support in its traditional working class base.
With Cameron a lame duck prime minister, there is a sudden power vacuum in Westminster. Brexit supporters had campaigned vigorously to leave, and now they have won, seem to have no clear strategy for how to deal with the aftermath. With EU leaders pressing for quick negotiations, there is nobody in power in the UK who seems to be a likely interlocutor.
Article 50 of the EU charter triggers the withdrawal of a member state, and Cameron has suggested that his successor should move this clause in October. But the recent meeting of the foreign ministers of the six founding members of the EU (first called the European Community) made it clear that they were not prepared to wait till then. This indicates the impatience Brexit has caused, and does not bode well for the divorce negotiations to come.
While observers will be analysing the reasons for Brexit for months, it is clear that it was immigration that provided the campaign with its most potent weapon. Interviews across England — with the notable exception of London — revealed the deep unease caused by massive immigration. Even normally liberal and tolerant people questioned the presence of millions of foreigners in their midst. As one man in a pub said to a TV interviewer: “We don’t want any more f....g Muslims in our country.” Others said much the same about migrants from East Europe.
Writing in the Financial Times — one of the few national newspapers to support the Stay campaign — Martin Wolf said:
“David Cameron took a huge gamble and lost. The fear-mongering and outright lies of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Nigel Farage and the Daily Mail have won. The UK, Europe, the west and the world are damaged. The UK is diminished and seems likely soon to be divided. Europe has lost its second-biggest and most outwards looking power. The hinge between the EU and the English-speaking world has been snapped. This is probably the most disastrous single event in British history since the Second World War.”
This comment captures the sense of grim foreboding that grips all those who can see the ramifications of Brexit. A plunging pound and the steep fall witnessed on the stock markets around the world has concentrated minds. But the divisions in society that have been exposed will take a long time to heal. Polls reveal that older people, the less educated and the unemployed voted overwhelmingly to leave. Younger, well-educated men and women were for staying, and are furious at their elders for depriving them of the benefits they enjoyed by being in the EU.
Given the obvious economic downside to leaving the EU, why did 52 per cent vote for Brexit? After all, the Stay side cited numerous studies showing the hit the economy would take. But in the event, the slogan ‘Take Back Control’ proved very seductive for those who resented the loss of sovereignty caused by their membership in the EU. Ultimately, the debate was reduced to the question of how to control the borders and reduce the flow of migrants.
Published in Dawn, June 27th, 2016
