34
AT times a revolution, at others a movement, and yet others a political party for radical reforms, the PTI has now comprehensively lost the plot. Even the pledge to not leave the premises until the prime minister resigns is no longer repeated. The talks around examining the four electoral districts where serious wrongdoing is alleged, have been forgotten.
What we have now is petulant and indignant oratory delivered to an assembled multitude, about the general deplorability of the status quo. No real path forward, and no path back either. By now everyone can see that the PTI has a lot of stamina to bellow its message night after night — but there is no real message as such.
Consider the diatribes against the power tariff hikes and the IMF as an example. There was a time when the IMF was written about in the Pakistani press as the seat of all evil, the wicked hand of imperialism that rams inflation-inducing policies down the throat of a reluctant government. Subsidies and price controls were good. Markets and businessmen were bad.
All this was fine only when you were in opposition, once in power you would be forced to forget all that and reckon with the dysfunctions of the economy with your hands tied behind your back in the same way as your predecessor. Once in power, those denouncing the Fund and all attempts at reform were subjected to the same pressures, and were forced to make the same decisions. People would say each ruler is the same, which was true to a point perhaps, but more true was the fact that each ruler faced the same challenges with the same constraints, which made their behaviour look the same as well.
One gets a sense of déjà vu listening to Imran Khan denounce the power tariff hikes and blaming them on the IMF.
Throughout the 1990s, writers and reporters and columnists gnashed their teeth at the structural adjustment programmes that respective governments were trying to implement, with varying degrees of success and commitment. It was common to read in those days that our economy was suffering due to the policies of the Fund, or that the common man was being made to bear the burden of policies dictated by our imperial masters.
All this was partially true. Our economy was indeed suffering, and the common man was indeed being made to bear the brunt, and to a large extent, the imperialist nature of the global economy could be identified as a large problem.
But the poor Fund was, in fact, a hapless spectator at best. The real suffering owed itself to the failure of our policy elite to develop a programme to adjust to the new world that globalisation had created.
The real failure was the inability to reform as the bureaucratic inefficiencies of our state ate away at the viability of its fiscal framework, as a malign political economy of rent-seeking investment inhibited the growth of our productivity, and kept our exports restricted to cotton, the product on which 18th-century economies made their riches. It was not just adjustment that ailed our economy, it was the failure to adjust, making it increasingly necessary to seek international assistance.
Some things have changed today. Today most of what is written about adjustment policies doesn’t fault the Fund for being too harsh on Pakistan. In fact, the theme most often repeated today is that the Fund is too soft on Pakistan, thereby obliging the country’s dependence on constant bailouts.
Therefore, listening to Imran Khan denounce the power tariff hikes and blame them on the IMF brought a sense of déjà vu. We’ve heard this song before. In fact, politics of this sort is exactly how we got here, where those in opposition roasted the government for taking tough decisions, but once in power, found themselves boxed into making the same decisions themselves.
Of course, endless tariff increases are not the solution, and of course the interests of the poor need to be looked after whenever undertaking reforms of any sort. But the sheer force of one man’s personality is not the answer either, especially when that one man is known for making one decision in the morning and another at night. The PTI has complained to Nepra that the upfront tariffs being offered for coal are too high. It has complained that the losses of the power sector are too high. It has complained that power tariffs are too high.
How exactly do they intend to plug these losses without raising tariffs, without incentivising private investment in cheaper fuels for power generation? How exactly do they intend to address our permanent and structural balance of payments deficit without recourse to the Fund? How do they intend to reform without adjustment?
That’s asking for too much. Before the elections, I wrote that the PTI has no idea of the complexity of politics in a parliamentary form of government, and therefore no real idea of how it will play in the new landscape that will open up after the elections. They left themselves no option whatsoever to form coalitions. Their response was that they will not need to form coalitions because they intend to acquire an absolute majority. That was their plan.
Now it’s time to up the ante on that call. Not only does the PTI have no capacity to manage the complexity of politics, but they have no vision whatsoever to deal with the far larger complexities of running things. Denouncing those in power for their decisions is easy. Exercising power yourself, owning the dysfunctions of the economy, the weaknesses of the policy machinery, the challenges of a top heavy rent-seeking business environment, that’s a different ballgame altogether.
Do not mistake the gust of hot air blowing from atop the containers these days for winds of change in the country. We’ve been here before, and this style of politics does nothing more than keep you running in place.
The writer is a member of staff.
Twitter: @khurramhusain
Published in Dawn, October 16th, 2014
