WASHINGTON: In December the Europeans must make a fateful decision: whether to give Turkey a definite date to begin negotiations to enter the European Union. That outcome remains uncertain. The US has a profound interest in it, but no say; it can, however, have a voice. It must be an effective one.

Yes or no, the stakes are enormous - for Turkey, Europe and the United States. In the case of Turkey, the accession process would transform the economy, society and political culture of a large, critically located country with enormous promise.

Similarly, Turkey's accession would transform the European Union and what happens under its new constitution. For the US, starting Turkish accession negotiations would fulfill a long-held strategic goal of placing a key ally in a prosperous and stable Europe while also contributing to reform in the greater Middle East. A "no" could push the Turkish economy into depression, undermine its surprising political stability and reverberate across the Muslim world.

Washington has been an enthusiastic advocate of Turkish membership since 1991 and has not been shy in making its views known. It played an important role in the European Union's establishment of a customs union with Turkey in 1995.

Now Europeans - including those in favour of Turkish accession - are warning that a strong, public US push in support of Turkey could backfire. This is not surprising. After all, Europeans would foot the bill for EU accession, not Americans.

The political sensitivity surrounding this issue in Europe is intense. This is not an easy topic for European leaders. Many European governments are prepared to begin the accession process in 2005 provided the European Commission finds that Turkey has met the necessary basic criteria.

But large sections of European publics are opposed. French President Jacques Chirac supports beginning the accession process, but more than 60 per cent of the French and even many senior figures in Chirac's own party remain opposed.

Similarly, in Germany, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is a firm advocate of Turkish accession, but his political opponents have urged an alternative, nonmember relationship for Turkey.

This year two factors make strong US advocacy especially problematic. First, the debate within Turkey is fierce and treacherous because the right wing is using the issue to win broad support.

Second, in the wake of the Iraq war, European public skepticism about US motivations limits the ability of the US to be an effective public advocate on many foreign policy issues.

If the US is to have an impact, it has to pursue a differentiated, carefully targeted and (dare we say) nuanced approach, as we have proposed in a new study by the Atlantic Council of the US.

US public advocacy of Turkish accession should be directed at those EU states where it can make a difference, most notably the new members in Central Europe, such as Poland. In countries such as France and Germany the US strategy should be one of quiet encouragement.

America should studiously avoid anything that can make the jobs of those politicians even more difficult. The US should also reach out to the human rights community and other key constituencies in Europe with the message that Ankara has come a long way and that accession helps address remaining concerns about building a civil society in Turkey. -Dawn/The LAT-WP News Service (c) The Washington Post.