ISLAMABAD: World wheat prices have declined following four consecutive monthly increases, largely reflecting subdued international demand and an improving production outlook.
According to the Food Price Index, published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) on Friday, expectations of easing constraints on export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline, it says.
The FAO Food Price Index, a benchmark measure of world food commodity prices, edged lower in October, as weaker import demand contributed to month-on-month declines in the price indices for cereals, dairy products and meat, according to the latest data released by the FAO.
The index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.9 points in October, down 1.6 points (1.2 per cent) from its revised September level, as lower price indices across most commodity groups more than offset a sharp rise in sugar and a marginal increase in vegetable oils.
FAO index down 1.2pc in October as cereals, dairy and meat demand weakens
Despite the monthly decline, the index stood 5.9pc above its level a year earlier but remained 16.4pc below its March 2022 peak.
The index says world cereal production is forecast to retreat from its 2025 record in 2026, while remaining at its second-highest level on record (2,999 million tonnes), according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also released by FAO on Friday.
Production is expected to decline across all major cereals, most markedly for wheat, while coarse grains are forecast to fall only marginally.
Rice production is set to contract for the first time in four seasons, falling by 2.5pc to 552 million tonnes, largely reflecting poor producer margins and El Niño-related adverse weather conditions.
World cereal utilisation in 2026-27 is forecast to increase marginally by 0.2pc to 2,971m tonnes from 2025-26. Food consumption accounts for most of the expected increase, with food use of both wheat and rice seen rising by 0.8pc and 1pc, respectively. This is slightly below the pace of global population growth.
Global cereal stocks are forecast to rise by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8pc, by the close of seasons in 2027, largely reflecting higher wheat inventories in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where export disruptions are contributing to supply accumulation. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.4pc, slightly above the previous season’s level.
World trade in cereals in 2026-27 is forecast to contract by 3.3pc, to 507.7m tonnes. A fall of 8.6pc in wheat trade is the main driver, with shipments from all major exporters declining amid supply or logistical constraints.
Published in Dawn, November 8th, 2026
