THAT India decided to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) 65 years after its signing has added another polemic to the turbulent relations between India and Pakistan. India’s decision came a day after the Pahalgam terrorist incident in India-occupied Kashmir. India blamed the incident on Pakistan, which demanded evidence and called for an independent investigation. Two days after the incident, the Indian minister for water resources, C.R. Patil, threatened that “not a single drop” of water would flow towards Pakistan. Ironically, while India cries foul, it is working actively to perpetuate proxy terrorism in Pakistan through the TTP and BLA.
The Narendra Modi government regards the IWT as historical injustice to India. Speaking to the Indian parliament in July 2025, Prime Minister Modi stated that holding the IWT in abeyance has rectified a “big blunder” committed by Jawaharlal Nehru. The argument is that the IWT gave Pakistan nearly 80 per cent of the Indus river system’s flows. Modi argued that India derived its identity from the Indus, but that Nehru and the Congress had allowed the World Bank to decide on the sharing of its waters. India’s leadership conveniently overlooks the fact that India receives 100pc of the waters of the three eastern rivers and is legally permitted to use 20pc of the water of the western rivers for irrigation, power generation and transport.
Indian thought circles are now weaving a narrative based on three elements: (i) IWT was an unequal bargain that must now be rectified; (ii) Pakistan’s insistence on treaty procedures was an impediment to India’s development projects that could benefit Kashmiris; (iii) Indian projects on the western rivers would not use more than the treaty-permitted 3.6 MAF (this cannot be verified as India is withholding information and has made the Indus Water Commission dysfunctional); and (iv) IWT should be renegotiated to account for demographic and environmental changes that have occurred since 1960.
This narrative is designed to take the international community’s attention away from India’s violation of international law as the IWT’s unilateral suspension isn’t allowed by the treaty. Besides, usurping the water rights of the lower riparian goes against the established norms of water sharing. Behind the façade of this narrative, India has started work on multiple dams, mostly on the Chenab river, and inter-basin transfers such as Chenab-Beas tunnel.
India can manipulate flows to hurt the sowing season in Pakistan.
Pakistan’s canal system works on the basis of predictable water flows. Given that India is building several dams and is not providing timely information, even a temporary reduction in flows during the sowing season can have a disastrous effect on Pakistan’s agriculture. That is why Pakistan is so concerned about Indian attempts to build these dams along with withholding information on water flows.
So, what options does Pakistan have to ensure its water security? An obvious one is to increase its diplomatic outreach so that the world understands that not only do India’s actions violate its legal obligations, they also threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of Pakistanis dependent on the waters of the Indus basin. However, since the world order is in disarray and the prevailing global geopolitics is chaotic, India doesn’t seem to care much for diplomatic pressure. Legally, Pakistan’s case has been endorsed by the Hague-based Court of Arbitration, which has ruled that India’s attempt to place the IWT in abeyance has no legal basis and that India must ensure the uninterrupted flow of the western rivers. However, India blatantly rejected the awards. That brings into play the military option. Wars are a costly business, pa-rticularly between two nuclear-armed neighbours. India needs to know that it must not test Pa-kistan’s patience lest both countries end up in a disastrous situation.
Some experts say that India will not be able to steal more water because of the limitations of the hilly terrain, particularly in the case of the Indus. If it could have stolen, it would have certainly done so in the past 65 years. However, this view does not take into account regional geopolitics, which has driven India’s decision to suspend the treaty. While it is true that geography will not permit India to stop Pakistan’s share of water, it can manipulate flows to hurt the sowing season in the country. A dedicated Pakistan-India backchannel is necessary to resolve the deadlock before disaster strikes. In a package approach, India could restore the treaty while Pakistan accepts the negotiation of an addendum to the IWT on demographic and environmental changes. Pakistan should also work harder towards more efficient use of the water it receives and bolster its storage capacity.
The writer is chairman, Sanober Institute, and former foreign secretary of Pakistan.
Published in Dawn, August 2nd, 2026
