LAHORE: Cotton stakeholders have questioned the credibility of the Federal Committee on Agriculture’s (FCA) production estimates for the 2026-27 cotton season after the committee projected Sindh’s per-acre cotton yield to be 63 percent higher than Balochistan’s and 41pc higher than Punjab’s, despite Balochistan historically recording the country’s highest yields.

Expressing surprise over the figures, Cotton Ginners Forum chairman Ehsanul Haq said the FCA, an attached body of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, had once again issued, what he termed unrealistic projections for national cotton production and provincial yields.

According to the FCA’s estimates for crop year 2026-27, Pakistan is expected to produce 9.643 million bales of cotton. The committee has projected Punjab to cultivate cotton on 3.2m acres, producing five million bales with an average yield of 1.60 bales per acre.

For Sindh, the FCA has estimated cotton cultivation over 1.486m acres, producing 4.042m bales with an average yield of 2.72 bales per acre. Balochistan, meanwhile, has been projected to cultivate cotton on 604,250 acres with an average yield of only one bale per acre.

Stakeholders argue that ‘unrealistic figures’ for FY27 may hit country’s credibility in world markets

Mr Haq termed the figures “highly unrealistic”, arguing that Balochistan has consistently achieved the highest per-acre cotton yields in Pakistan due to its favourable climatic conditions, lower environmental pollution and limited sugarcane cultivation.

He said cotton produced in Balochistan is widely regarded as superior in quality, with its lint fetching Rs500 to Rs700 more per maund than cotton from Punjab and Sindh. Cottonseed and cottonseed oil from the province also fetch higher prices in the market, he added.

He wonders how the FCA could project Sindh’s average yield to be 63pc higher than Balochistan’s and 41pc higher than Punjab’s, saying such estimates did not reflect ground realities.

He also criticised the FCA’s forecasting record, pointing out that the committee had fixed a national production target of 10.18m bales for crop year 2025-26, including 5.553m bales for Punjab and 4.042m bales for Sindh. However, he says, the actual production during the season stood at only 5.524m bales across the country, with Punjab producing 2.718m bales and Sindh 2.807m bales, highlighting what he describes as a significant gap between official projections and actual output.

He urged the FCA to adopt realistic, field-based assessments, instead of issuing what he described as “drawing-room estimates”, warning that inaccurate production figures could damage Pakistan’s credibility in international markets and create uncertainty for cotton stakeholders in planning procurement, imports, exports and overall marketing strategies.

Published in Dawn, July 8th, 2026