RECENT reports that India plans to invest $60bn in increasing its water storage capacity on the Jhelum and Chenab rivers confirm official concerns that New Delhi is weaponising the shared resource against Pakistan. The increase in storage capacity from roughly 15 days to nearly two months will expand India’s holding ability on the rivers allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty, giving it unprecedented leverage over downstream flows. In an agrarian economy like ours, where sowing cycles rely on predictable river discharge, even brief interruptions can cause lasting damage. A 55- to 60-day window to regulate flows could enable India to create artificial scarcity during critical crop cycles, especially during the low-flow winter months. The reverse scenario is as alarming. During monsoon surges, large upstream storage gives India the capacity to release accumulated water in concentrated volumes, flooding downstream regions.

Although the IWT has survived wars and diplomatic ruptures since it was signed in 1960, India’s decision to place it “in abeyance”, followed by a series of contentious steps, has unsettled a framework long valued for its predictability and stability. Against this backdrop, the recent directive by the Court of Arbitration instructing India to share specific project-related data for the dams it is building on Pakistani rivers has significance beyond procedural compliance. It is also a reminder that the IWT’s dispute resolution mechanisms remain active, even amid strained Pakistan-India ties. It reinforces the principle that transboundary river management cannot be altered through unilateral political decisions. That said, legal or diplomatic wins on their own will not protect us from hydrological risks. Pakistan must move with urgency on two fronts: it must leverage diplomatic and legal avenues to press India to uphold its IWT obligations; and it should strengthen its own policy preparedness to successfully meet any Indian attempt to weaponise water — whether through engineered flooding or by restricting flows that sustain Pakistan’s agriculture. That, however, does not mean allowing some circles to advance controversial agendas, including the construction of contentious new flood reservoirs. Sindh, the lower riparian province, has serious reservations about such proposals and has pointed out that even existing river flows often fail to meet drinking water, irrigation and ecological needs downstream. Building additional storage in an already water-deficient system risks aggravating these issues.

Published in Dawn, March 3rd, 2026