THE Met Office’s warning of above-normal temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir is a glimpse into a dangerous future already unfolding in the north. With daytime temperatures 3-5°C above normal and night-time cooling increasingly inadequate, glaciers are melting faster, and glacial lakes are swelling. The risk of glacial lake outburst floods is imminent. Gilgit, Bunji, Hunza, Ghizar and Astore sit on the front line of climate change. Reduced snowfall over the past three years and delayed winter precipitation mean less compacted snow turning into stable glacial ice. Instead, late and lighter snowfall melts quickly in spring and summer, sending more water downstream and filling fragile glacial lakes held back by loose rock and debris. When these weak natural barriers give way, entire valleys below can be overwhelmed within hours. Last summer’s floods and cloudbursts remind us how exposed these mountain communities are.
The warming trend — a 0.6°C rise over recent decades — may appear modest on paper. In high-altitude ecosystems, however, even small temperature shifts disrupt hydrological cycles, agriculture, infrastructure and livelihoods. Roads wash away, crops are destroyed, tourism suffers and families are displaced. The north’s fragile ecology cannot absorb such shocks repeatedly. The government must move quickly. First, early warning systems for Glofs must be expanded, modernised and linked directly to community response mechanisms. Second, vulnerable glacial lakes should be mapped and regularly assessed, and, where necessary, engineered drainage solutions implemented. Third, resilient infrastructure such as reinforced bridges, climate-adapted roads and protective embankments must be prioritised in budgets. Equally important is community preparedness. Evacuation drills, local disaster committees and public awareness campaigns can save lives. Finally, we must intensify our climate diplomacy to secure adaptation financing for mountain regions that contribute little to global emissions yet bear disproportionate risks. Protecting the people who live beneath our glaciers is a national imperative.
Published in Dawn, February 25th, 2026
