• 300m workers earn less than $3 a day
• Poverty, informality and youth joblessness persist
• Automation and uncertainty deepen employment risks

ISLAMABAD: As nearly 300 million workers continue to live in extreme poverty, earning less than $3 a day, a new report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) says progress towards decent work has stalled, warning that young people continue to struggle, while artificial intelligence and trade policy uncertainty risk further undermining the job market.

The ILO report, Employment and Social Trends 2026, released on Wednesday, finds that while the global unemployment rate is projected to stay at 4.9 per cent in 2026 — equivalent to 186 million people — millions of workers around the world still lack access to quality jobs.

Despite the resilience of global unemployment rates amid economic uncertainty, the world continues to fall short in achieving meaningful reductions in decent work deficits. Given demographic shifts in global labour markets, decent work deficits are set to increase again after a prolonged period of improvement. Yet rising AI adoption, trade policy uncertainty, low foreign direct investment and stagnant trade growth render improvements in working conditions through an expansion of employment in trade-related sectors more difficult.

The report says informality is rising, with 2.1 billion workers expected to hold informal jobs by 2026, with limited access to social protection, rights at work and job security. The acute lack of progress in low-income countries is pushing workers with the poorest employment conditions even further behind, it says.

Youth unemployment climbed to 12.4pc in 2025, with around 260m young people not in education, employment or training (NEET). In low-income countries, NEET rates are a daunting 27.9pc. The ILO warned that artificial intelligence and automation could exacerbate challenges, particularly for educated youth in high-income countries seeking their first job in high-skill occupations.

Women still face entrenched barriers, largely driven by social norms and stereotypes. They account for just two-fifths of global employment and are 24pc less likely than men to participate in the labour force. Gains in female labour force participation have stalled, slowing progress towards gender equality at work.

Ageing populations are slowing labour force growth in richer economies, as fewer people of working age are available to enter or remain in employment, while low-income countries struggle to turn rapid population growth into productive jobs.

Employment growth in 2026 is projected at 0.5 per cent in upper-middle-income countries, 1.8pc in lower-middle-income economies and 3.1pc in low-income ones. Without sufficient productive job opportunities, poorer countries risk squandering their demographic dividend, the ILO warned.

Global trade disruptions are adding uncertainty to labour markets. Uncertainty about trade rules and supply chain bottlenecks is cutting into workers’ wages, especially in Southeast Asia, Southern Asia and Europe. Nevertheless, trade remains a major source of jobs, supporting 465 million workers worldwide, more than half of them in Asia and the Pacific.

Despite an increase in employment of around 15.3 million people between 2024 and 2025, the employment-to-population ratio in Asia and the Pacific was estimated at 57.9pc in 2025. It is expected to decrease through to 2027, partly because of population ageing.

Asia and the Pacific is one of the most exposed regions to the effects of climate change, while also being a major emitter of greenhouse gases. As a green transition advances in the region, green jobs are appearing more prominently in national development strategies and plans. Jobs in the renewable energy sector have been on the rise, but they represent only part of the broader green jobs landscape.

Published in Dawn, January 15th, 2026