SAHIWAL: Punjab’s potato-growing belt is heading towards a severe economic shock due to production surplus, stagnant domestic demand and shrunk exports, prompting the farmers and experts to call for urgent government intervention through subsidies and exports.

The potato belt of the province includes Sahiwal, Okara, Pakpattan, Kasur and adjoining districts where the stakeholders, including the farmers, say that market has crashed even before the complete arrival of the new crop. Wholesale prices of potato have fallen well below the production costs, forcing some farmers to plough their fields, destroying their crop to avoid further losses. Potatoes were sold at the rate of Rs20-25 per kg in three districts of Sahiwal division.

“Farmers in districts of Okara, Pakpattan, Sahiwal, Kasur, Khanewal and Vehari say they are facing massive losses as a 60kg bag of potato from the cold storage is selling for only Rs600-700 in the open market while its transportation cost is Rs400. Many farmers are unable to sell their produce from the cold storage and potato traders are reluctant to release their stocks from cold storage,” says Khalid Mahmood Khokhar, the president of Pakistan Kisan Ittehad (PKI), while speaking to Dawn.

Highlighting the troubles of potato farmers, he says they had invested Rs270,000 to Rs300,000 per acre in potato cultivation but they are unable to recover even their input costs.

Potatoes being sold at Rs20–25 per kg in the market leaves the growers with losses of Rs235,000 to Rs250,000 per acre, Mr Khokhar says and adds that 2025 has been a devastating year for potato farmers.

Punjab’s farmers unable to recover even inputs cost; growers from potato belt may find it hard to regain confidence anytime soon

Agricultural experts estimate that Pakistan’s domestic potato demand stands at around 6.2 million tonnes annually while the current season’s crop is expected to be double of that volume. Even by optimistic estimates, including exports of about 350,000 tonnes to Afghanistan (if border opens) and another 400,000 tonnes to other destinations, the surplus would only be temporarily absorbed, stabilising prices for a few weeks at best.

“The crisis fundamentally stems from overproduction and surplus supply,” says Rashid Chaudhry, chief executive officer of Pind Sudhar, an organisation doing independent market analysis and research on potato. He adds that exports without government support are not commercially viable because potatoes are cheap globally, while Punjab’s cost of production is comparatively high.

Mr Rashid says transport costs, storage losses and weak prices in regional markets mean that unsubsidised exports often operate while facing a loss. Last year’s experience underscores the risk when Afghan markets remained open, investors bought potatoes from farmers and stored them in anticipation of export demand. Farmers received reasonable prices but traders suffered heavy losses when prices failed to recover.

This is confirmed by Ahmed Hasan, a large potato grower and cold storage operator, at Depalpur in district Okara.

“This year, such investors will likely stay away. Without them, all the surplus produce will also flood the domestic market,” says another cold storage operator who is based in Sahiwal.

Ahmed Hasan adds that situation is further complicated by uncertainty over trade with Afghanistan, saying that open borders encourage speculative buying and storage, helping stabilise farmgate prices. However, this year, this factor also looks unlikely due to the closure of Afghan border.

Official figures show that acreage under potato cultivation this season went up by about 24pc compared to last year, driven by herd behaviour among the farmers, seeking returns from an input-intensive but high-output crop.

Production costs compound the problem. Independent estimates put per acre cultivation costs at over Rs300,000, significantly higher than official figures of Rs266,000. With farmgate prices falling to Rs10-15 per kg in some markets, growers are facing losses even before harvest expenses are recovered.

Khalid Mahmood Khokhar argues that the only viable short-term solution for the Punjab government is to procure potatoes directly from the farmers and export them with a targeted subsidy.

While such a programme would require several billion rupees, proponents say the foreign exchange earned would offset part of the cost and help reduce the trade deficit.

Independent researchers caution that subsidies alone are not a long-term fix. They demand expansion through food processing, value addition and dietary diversification, alongside better production planning. However, they warn that without immediate action, the damage this season could be irreversible.

Punjab Minister for Agriculture Ashiq Hussain Kirmani, speaking to Dawn by phone, confirms that following the closure of the Afghan border, the Punjab government had written two letters to the Federal Commerce Ministry and the Ministry of National Food Security, requesting opening of an alternative route in the first week of December. He claims that it was through the efforts of the Punjab government that the Iranian border was formally and officially opened for the first time, which provided immediate relief, allowing Punjab’s crops to find a way to the market of Iran, if not in Afghanistan.

He admits that the Punjab government cannot make decision regarding Afghan trade on its own.

Regarding the ongoing negotiations with PKI leadership, the minister states that the PKI charter of demands has been thoroughly discussed and that various consultative groups have been formed to finalise recommendations for both federal and provincial governments.

“The Punjab government genuinely wants to help all kinds of stakeholders but most of PKI’s demands fall in the jurisdictions of the federal government. That’s why Rana Tanveer, Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research, has been taken on board.”

The provincial minister stresses that the government is making every possible efforts to protect the interests of farmers.

A delegation of the PKI, led by Khokhar, met the agriculture minister to discuss the farmers’ issues, including price crisis of potatoes.

The minister noted that surplus production would often depress prices. He said that though the Afghan border remains closed, the federal government has managed exports to the Central Asian states via Iran, and assured full coordination to reduce farmers’ losses and boost exports.On the occasion, PKI submitted a Charter of Demands, including declaration of an agriculture emergency, government of procurement and export of potatoes, restoration of solar net-metering, advance announcement of support prices, electricity at Rs15 per unit for tubewells, incentives for cotton cultivation, a crop insurance system, wheat support price of Rs4,000 per 40 kg and establishment of an independent price commission.

Published in Dawn, January 7th, 2026