MOVING into 2026, Pakistan stands as the world’s fifth most populous country, with more than 255m people. This fact is often viewed as a crisis to be dealt with. Yet population size itself is not the problem. The real question is whether the state treats population dynamics as a liability to be endured or a strategic force to be governed in pursuit of development. There were signs in 2025 that thinking has begun to shift. As noted by the United Nations Population Fund, improvements in reproductive health services, population data systems and youth engagement point to a growing recognition that demography sits at the heart of economic planning, social stability and climate resilience. Better coordination between federal and provincial authorities also suggests a welcome, if tentative, move away from fragmented policymaking. Yet challenges prevail. Maternal mortality is still high, millions of women lack access to family planning, early marriages persist and gender-based violence remains widespread — issues which shape fertility trends, labour participation and human capital formation. In climate-exposed districts, weak health systems and limited access to services deepen vulnerability, reinforcing inequalities. The evidence leaves little room for debate. Expanding sexual and reproductive health services, keeping girls in school, and enabling women’s participation in the economy are among the most effective ways to support informed reproductive choices and balanced population growth. Countries that have neglected these fundamentals have paid the price in stalled growth and social strain.

Where Pakistan continues to falter is governance. Policies are announced and commitments made, but delivery is weak and accountability thinner still. This is most visible in fiscal planning. The NFC award relies overwhelmingly on population size, rewarding headcounts rather than outcomes. The result is a system that does little to incentivise better health, education, or gender equality. A forward-looking state would reward progress in lower maternal mortality, higher female labour participation, improved education outcomes, and greater climate resilience. The new year offers a window. Moving from promises to progress will require political will, sustained domestic financing and strong oversight. Population is already shaping Pakistan’s future. The challenge now is to govern it as an asset, not merely count it as a problem.

Published in Dawn, January 4th, 2026